SHARP

A case on Key-Drop (KINGS CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$7.89

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $6.90 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.59%

10.7K openings, odds method

Variance

10.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 31

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

87.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

98.08%±20.87961 openings

7 days

85.77%±6.569,545 openings

30 days

85.59%±6.2210.7K openings

since tracking started

85.59%±6.2210.7K openings

76.5%98.0%119.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	961	98.08%±20.9	+1.0σ	odds
7d	9,545	85.77%±6.56	−0.5σ	odds
30d	10.7K	85.59%±6.22	−0.6σ	odds
All	10.7K	85.59%±6.22	−0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.7K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1	1 in 2,000	$626	4.5%	4	5.4	0.75×
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1	1 in 357	$237	9.6%	30	30.0	1.00×
★ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 182	$118	9.4%	65	58.9	1.10×
★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 175	$114	9.4%	59	61.0	0.97×
M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 116	$75.58	9.4%	77	92.1	0.84×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 112	$73.13	9.4%	101	95.3	1.06×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 99	$64.58	9.4%	94	108.1	0.87×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 83	$54.15	9.4%	144	128.5	1.12×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 66	$42.85	9.4%	159	162.7	0.98×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 17	$10.77	9.4%	645	646.6	1.00×
AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	27.9%	$2.48	10.0%	3,187	2986.7	1.07×
MP9 \| Buff Blue (Factory New)weapon · Common	59.1%	$0.06	0.5%	6,140	6329.9	0.97×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/sharp-2, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1$7.89$63980.94x6d

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1$7.89$63079.87x2d

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1$7.89$62679.36x18h

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1$7.89$62679.36x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | Phobos (Field-Tested)weapon · restricteddenis$7.89$2.480.31x6m

MP9 | Buff Blue (Factory New)weapon · Commondenis$7.89$0.060.01x6m

AWP | Phobos (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted⚓ ADMİRAL ⚓$7.89$2.480.31x9m

MP9 | Buff Blue (Factory New)weapon · Common⚓ ADMİRAL ⚓$7.89$0.060.01x9m

MP9 | Buff Blue (Factory New)weapon · Common⚓ ADMİRAL ⚓$7.89$0.060.01x10m

AWP | Phobos (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted⚓ ADMİRAL ⚓$7.89$2.480.31x10m

AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested)weapon · pink$7.89$10.031.27x11m

AWP | Phobos (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted⚓ ADMİRAL ⚓$7.89$2.550.32x11m

MP9 | Buff Blue (Factory New)weapon · Common⚓ ADMİRAL ⚓$7.89$0.060.01x11m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$7.89	87.50%	12
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$7.89	87.79%	12
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$7.89	87.20%	12
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$7.89	87.90%	12
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$7.89	87.25%	12
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$7.89	86.84%	12
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$7.89	87.74%	12
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$7.89	87.61%	12
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$7.89	87.49%	12
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$7.89	87.34%	12
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$7.89	87.55%	12
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$7.89	87.26%	12
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$7.89	87.37%	12
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$7.89	87.82%	12
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$7.89	87.42%	12
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$7.89	87.66%	12
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$7.89	87.89%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedgold 0.9%covert 3.7%restricted 28.8%Ancient 1.5%pink 6.0%Common 59.1%best hit $639 (80.94x)