SILK

A case on Key-Drop (BATTLE CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$295.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $258.12 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d

93.63%

2,718 openings, odds method

Variance

4.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

11.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

74.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

88.78%±13.72933 openings

7 days

94.84%±8.562,415 openings

30 days

93.63%±8.062,718 openings

since tracking started

93.63%±8.062,718 openings

74.5%89.3%104.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	933	88.78%±13.7	+0.2σ	odds
7d	2,415	94.84%±8.56	+1.6σ	odds
30d	2,718	93.63%±8.06	+1.4σ	odds
All	2,718	93.63%±8.06	+1.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,718 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)weapon · legendary	1 in 1,250	$12K	3.7%	2	2.2	0.92×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 1,000	$9,362	3.6%	5	2.7	1.84×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 1,000	$9,286	3.6%	7	2.7	2.58×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 345	$3,100	3.5%	5	7.9	0.63×
★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 250	$2,232	3.5%	11	10.9	1.01×
Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 189	$1,685	3.5%	12	14.4	0.83×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 164	$1,450	3.4%	18	16.6	1.09×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000	$1,425	0.6%	3	2.7	1.10×
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$1,380	1.1%	3	5.4	0.55×
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 435	$1,300	1.2%	5	6.3	0.80×
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 385	$1,224	1.2%	4	7.1	0.57×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 61	$794	5.0%	37	44.6	0.83×
★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 15	$688	17.2%	187	175.9	1.06×
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 11	$499	17.2%	228	242.2	0.94×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 18	$428	9.4%	119	153.6	0.77×
★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 34	$258	2.9%	84	79.6	1.05×
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1	1 in 27	$237	3.4%	111	101.4	1.09×
M4A1-S \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · epic	1 in 26	$222	3.3%	101	105.5	0.96×
★ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 23	$189	3.1%	103	116.1	0.89×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 43	$154	1.4%	62	63.6	0.97×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 38	$144	1.5%	49	70.7	0.69×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 31	$89.33	1.1%	54	87.2	0.62×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 78	$82.85	0.4%	22	34.8	0.63×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 27	$82.41	1.2%	70	99.5	0.70×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 44	$58.32	0.5%	55	61.2	0.90×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 40	$54.51	0.5%	54	68.0	0.79×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 40	$54.15	0.5%	56	68.8	0.81×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 59	$35.79	0.2%	41	46.2	0.89×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 58	$34.33	0.2%	32	46.5	0.69×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 24	$20.29	0.3%	93	114.7	0.81×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$18.51	0.3%	102	132.6	0.77×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 18	$16.90	0.4%	117	153.6	0.76×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 19	$16.85	0.3%	106	145.1	0.73×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	15.8%	$8.79	0.5%	337	428.1	0.79×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/silk, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)weapon · legendaryEl chapo$295$12K40.83x5d

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyLook At Me$295$9,65332.72x5d

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$295$9,65332.72x2d

★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$295$9,51532.25x5d

★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$295$9,45532.05x5d

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyEl chapo$295$9,36231.74x22h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Hyper Beastweapon · redPro MMA Fighter$295$1490.50x9h

M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertPro MMA Fighter$295$1540.52x9h

AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$295$16.900.06x9h

★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epic$295$6882.33x9h

AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$295$20.290.07x9h

★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epic$295$6882.33x9h

AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$295$54.150.18x9h

AWP | Ice Coaledweapon · pinkxno777name$295$12.590.04x9h

★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epicxno777name$295$6882.33x9h

AWP | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · pink$295$8.790.03x9h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$295	87.50%	34
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$295	87.53%	34
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$295	87.32%	34
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$295	87.86%	34
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$295	87.58%	34
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$295	87.74%	34
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$295	87.57%	34
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$295	88.06%	34
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$295	87.62%	34
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$295	87.82%	34
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$295	88.22%	34
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$295	88.09%	34
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$295	88.06%	34
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$295	87.87%	34
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$295	88.14%	34
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$295	88.20%	34
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$295	87.32%	34

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.1%covert 38.7%restricted 0.5%extraordinary 7.4%epic 10.3%gold 3.7%classified 16.4%pink 17.5%uncommon 5.3%best hit $12K (40.83x)