SMART

A case on Key-Drop (KINGS CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$4.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $3.50 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.31%

9,810 openings, odds method

Variance

39.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 74

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

91.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

69.10%±39.35994 openings

7 days

88.77%±13.158,423 openings

30 days

90.31%±12.219,810 openings

since tracking started

90.31%±12.219,810 openings

29.0%69.0%109.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	994	69.10%±39.3	−0.9σ	odds
7d	8,423	88.77%±13.1	+0.1σ	odds
30d	9,810	90.31%±12.2	+0.4σ	odds
All	9,810	90.31%±12.2	+0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,815 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 7,143	$1,119	4.5%	1	1.4	0.73×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$787	4.5%	5	2.0	2.55×
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 4,000	$609	4.3%	4	2.5	1.63×
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 3,333	$507	4.3%	0	2.9	0.00×
★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 2,083	$317	4.3%	2	4.7	0.42×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 1,163	$172	4.2%	9	8.4	1.07×
★ Survival Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 990	$147	4.3%	16	9.9	1.61×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 730	$109	4.3%	16	13.4	1.19×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 625	$92.38	4.2%	9	15.7	0.57×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 439	$64.85	4.2%	16	22.4	0.71×
★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 429	$63.61	4.2%	23	22.9	1.01×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 366	$54.24	4.2%	29	26.8	1.08×
AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 228	$33.60	4.2%	52	43.0	1.21×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 161	$23.67	4.2%	65	61.0	1.06×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 159	$23.44	4.2%	68	61.6	1.10×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 138	$20.29	4.2%	86	71.3	1.21×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 102	$14.98	4.2%	85	96.4	0.88×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 60	$8.79	4.2%	155	164.3	0.94×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 51	$7.50	4.2%	214	192.6	1.11×
XM1014 \| Solitude (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	10.6%	$2.37	7.2%	999	1043.2	0.96×
P2000 \| Acid Etched (Minimal Wear)weapon · 3	12.2%	$1.54	5.4%	1,094	1201.0	0.91×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	12.9%	$1.28	4.7%	1,128	1269.6	0.89×
SSG 08 \| Dezastre (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	27.0%	$0.11	0.8%	2,737	2650.7	1.03×
MP5-SD \| Focus (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	28.8%	$0.09	0.7%	3,002	2827.3	1.06×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/smart-2, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$4.00$1,149287.3x2d

★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · coverthardzioo$4.00$825206.1x8d

★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert$4.00$814203.4x6d

★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert$4.00$777194.3x4d

★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert$4.00$761190.1x2d

AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covertLeKorrigan$4.00$621155.2x6d

AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert$4.00$619154.9x4d

AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert$4.00$617154.2x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

XM1014 | Solitude (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ffjet$4.00$2.370.59x2h

XM1014 | Solitude (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff$4.00$2.390.60x2h

SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue$4.00$0.120.03x2h

XM1014 | Solitude (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ffjet$4.00$2.390.60x2h

P2000 | Acid Etched (Minimal Wear)weapon · 3MonarchBeauty$4.00$1.540.39x4h

P2000 | Acid Etched (Minimal Wear)weapon · 3MonarchBeauty$4.00$1.490.37x4h

M4A1-S | Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$4.00$15.083.77x4h

SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue$4.00$0.120.03x4h

P2000 | Acid Etched (Minimal Wear)weapon · 3$4.00$1.490.37x4h

M4A1-S | Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pink$4.00$7.701.93x4h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$4.00	87.50%	24
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$4.00	87.63%	24
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$4.00	87.57%	24
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$4.00	88.01%	24
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$4.00	88.04%	24
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$4.00	87.87%	24
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$4.00	87.28%	24
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$4.00	87.29%	24
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$4.00	88.13%	24
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$4.00	87.49%	24
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$4.00	87.14%	24
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$4.00	87.98%	24
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$4.00	87.66%	24
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$4.00	87.90%	24
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$4.00	87.10%	24
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$4.00	88.09%	24
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$4.00	86.81%	24

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed3 12.2%covert 1.0%red 0.1%gold 0.1%rare 0.2%classified 3.4%pink 3.6%#8847ff 10.6%Mythical 12.9%blue 55.8%best hit $1,149 (287.3x)