SPARK
A case on Key-Drop (KINGS CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$1.90
Advertised RTP
87.05%
EV $1.65 from 3 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.34%
9,812 openings, odds method
Variance
31.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 41
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
97.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values3 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,833 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Flip Knife | Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold | 1 in 1,351 | $163 | 7.3% | 6 | 7.3 | 0.82× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 42 | $63.61 | 90.9% | 220 | 232.5 | 0.95× |
| Five-SeveN | Coolant (Field-Tested)weapon · #777777 | 97.6% | $0.03 | 1.8% | 9,607 | 9593.3 | 1.00× |
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/spark, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.05%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $1.90 | 87.05% | 3 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $1.90 | 87.04% | 3 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $1.90 | 87.10% | 3 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $1.90 | 87.01% | 3 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.90 | 87.02% | 3 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $1.90 | 86.66% | 3 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $1.90 | 87.00% | 3 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $1.90 | 87.01% | 3 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $1.90 | 87.30% | 3 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $1.90 | 87.05% | 3 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $1.90 | 87.03% | 3 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $1.90 | 87.07% | 3 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $1.90 | 87.50% | 3 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $1.90 | 87.09% | 3 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $1.90 | 87.08% | 3 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.90 | 87.06% | 3 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedgold 0.1%covert 2.4%#777777 97.6%best hit $159 (83.48x)