STORM

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$16.42

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $14.37 from 54 items

Observed RTP, 30d

98.32%

1,314 openings, odds method

Variance

2.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

20.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

70.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

85 openings · below min

7 days

103.72%±9.621,068 openings

30 days

98.32%±8.691,314 openings

since tracking started

98.32%±8.691,314 openings

87.0%174.8%262.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.60% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (89.63% – 107.00%, 1,314 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	85	228.31%±33.5	—	odds
7d	1,068	103.72%±9.62	+3.3σ	odds
30d	1,314	98.32%±8.69	+2.4σ	odds
All	1,314	98.32%±8.69	+2.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values54 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,314 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 10,000	$1,445	1.0%	1	0.1	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 5,000	$619	0.9%	2	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 5,000	$556	0.8%	0	0.3	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 3,333	$423	0.9%	2	0.4	—
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 3,333	$393	0.8%	0	0.4	—
Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,500	$258	0.7%	1	0.5	—
★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 6,250	$244	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 4,545	$205	0.3%	0	0.3	—
★ Paracord Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 1,961	$160	0.6%	1	0.7	—
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)weapon · red · Phase 2	1 in 2,632	$101	0.3%	1	0.5	—
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,220	$99.16	0.6%	0	1.1	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Phase 2)weapon · covert · Phase 2	1 in 2,083	$89.80	0.3%	0	0.6	—
Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,852	$67.62	0.3%	0	0.7	—
AWP \| Sun in Leo (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 243	$60.90	1.7%	3	5.4	0.56×
AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 41	$58.10	9.8%	24	32.0	0.75×
Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 71	$55.26	5.4%	16	18.5	0.86×
AWP \| Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 60	$33.60	3.9%	15	22.0	0.68×
USP-S \| Ancient Visions (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 18	$30.80	12.2%	73	74.9	0.97×
USP-S \| Overgrowth (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 43	$30.29	4.9%	21	30.6	0.69×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 67	$23.33	2.4%	11	19.5	0.56×
AWP \| Corticera (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 21	$22.79	7.6%	54	63.1	0.86×
AWP \| Sun in Leo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 39	$21.40	3.8%	31	33.8	0.92×
USP-S \| Overgrowth (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 31	$20.36	4.6%	41	42.2	0.97×
Tec-9 \| Toxic (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 38	$17.34	3.2%	31	34.5	0.90×
AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Well-Worn)weapon · red	12.6%	$13.67	12.0%	79	165.7	0.48×
AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 13	$13.28	7.1%	64	100.4	0.64×
AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 93	$13.09	1.0%	55	14.1	3.90×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 105	$12.97	0.9%	8	12.5	0.64×
Tec-9 \| Toxic (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 79	$12.35	1.1%	14	16.7	0.84×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 46	$12.31	1.9%	42	28.7	1.47×
AWP \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 122	$10.91	0.6%	9	10.8	0.83×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 62	$10.77	1.2%	18	21.2	0.85×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 77	$10.65	1.0%	17	17.2	0.99×
AWP \| Elite Build (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 116	$10.57	0.6%	10	11.4	0.88×
Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 463	$8.96	0.1%	2	2.8	0.70×
PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 232	$5.18	0.2%	1	5.7	0.18×
M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 91	$5.00	0.4%	6	14.4	0.42×
AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 130	$3.54	0.2%	6	10.1	0.59×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 153	$3.27	0.1%	7	8.6	0.81×
AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 61	$2.22	0.3%	15	21.4	0.70×
PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 58	$2.17	0.3%	17	22.8	0.75×
AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 59	$2.17	0.3%	22	22.2	0.99×
M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 22	$2.07	0.6%	33	59.1	0.56×
PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 53	$2.05	0.3%	18	24.9	0.72×
AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 53	$2.03	0.3%	12	24.7	0.49×
PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 50	$1.99	0.3%	10	26.1	0.38×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 61	$1.84	0.2%	11	21.5	0.51×
Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 31	$1.66	0.4%	26	42.0	0.62×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 49	$1.56	0.2%	22	27.0	0.82×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 46	$1.54	0.2%	16	28.6	0.56×
Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 27	$1.53	0.4%	31	47.9	0.65×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 35	$1.31	0.3%	38	37.1	1.02×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$1.22	0.3%	28	40.0	0.70×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 29	$1.12	0.3%	40	45.8	0.87×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/storm, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$16.42$1,44588.01x7h

★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$16.42$62237.86x4d

★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$16.42$61937.71x10h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A4 | Turbine (Factory New)weapon · #8847ffredpill$16.42$12.310.75x6m

AWP | Pit Viperweapon · violetdeadtree$16.42$1.260.08x7h

AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricteddeadtree$16.42$1.560.10x7h

M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Well-Worn)weapon · violet$16.42$1.840.11x7h

AK-47 | Aphrodite (Well-Worn)weapon · red$16.42$13.670.83x7h

AWP | Corticera (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6$16.42$22.791.39x7h

AK-47 | Aphrodite (Well-Worn)weapon · red$16.42$13.670.83x7h

PP-Bizon | Embargo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$16.42$2.050.12x7h

M4A1-S | Glitched Paintweapon · violet1$16.42$1.670.10x7h

M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1$16.42$1.310.08x7h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$16.42	87.50%	54
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$16.42	87.71%	54
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$16.42	87.75%	54
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$16.42	87.76%	54
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$16.42	87.68%	54
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$16.42	87.40%	54
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$16.42	87.35%	54
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$16.42	87.68%	54
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$16.42	87.76%	54
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$16.42	87.55%	54
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$16.42	87.52%	54
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$16.42	87.37%	54
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$16.42	87.69%	54
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$16.42	87.81%	54
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$16.42	87.58%	54
3 Nov, 15:54 UTC	$16.42	87.76%	54
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$16.42	87.67%	54
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$16.42	87.94%	54

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.3%restricted 21.6%classified 10.0%rare 0.1%red 13.7%industrial 4.7%Ancient 2.4%#8847ff 15.5%Legendary 1.5%#d32ce6 4.8%mil spec 2.6%pink 3.9%Rare 3.9%Classified 0.8%Mythical 0.7%blue 3.3%violet 10.3%best hit $1,445 (88.01x)