SUNSHINE
A case on Key-Drop (FARM CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$0.40
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $0.35 from 40 items
Observed RTP, 30d
80.16%
27.3K openings, odds method
Variance
3.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
36.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
77.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 85.48% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (78.12% – 82.21%, 27,312 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 27.4K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/sunshine, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $0.40 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $0.40 | 86.17% | 40 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $0.40 | 85.58% | 40 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $0.40 | 85.36% | 40 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $0.40 | 84.19% | 40 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.40 | 85.68% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $0.40 | 84.85% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $0.40 | 85.09% | 40 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $0.40 | 84.77% | 40 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $0.40 | 84.41% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $0.40 | 84.45% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $0.40 | 86.21% | 40 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $0.40 | 85.37% | 40 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $0.40 | 85.88% | 40 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $0.40 | 86.46% | 40 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $0.40 | 87.02% | 40 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.40 | 83.47% | 40 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrare 0.0%covert 0.0%red 0.0%classified 0.0%#d32ee6 0.1%Legendary 0.0%#d32ce6 0.0%violet 21.0%restricted 0.9%#8847ff 0.1%#4b69ff 1.2%gray 1.8%Restricted 0.5%Mythical 0.6%common 1.1%blue 63.7%Rare 9.0%best hit —