SWAP
A case on Key-Drop (KINGS CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$3.16
Advertised RTP
87.01%
EV $2.75 from 2 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.76%
10.7K openings, odds method
Variance
16.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 23
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values2 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.7K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert | 1 in 23 | $61.44 | 99.3% | 469 | 477.4 | 0.98× |
| Galil AR | O-Ranger (Field-Tested)weapon · light blue | 95.6% | $0.02 | 0.7% | 10,274 | 10265.6 | 1.00× |
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/swap, 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.01%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC | $3.16 | 87.01% | 2 |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $3.16 | 87.02% | 2 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $3.16 | 87.01% | 2 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $3.16 | 87.01% | 2 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $3.16 | 87.01% | 2 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $3.16 | 87.02% | 2 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $3.16 | 86.81% | 2 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $3.16 | 87.09% | 2 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $3.16 | 87.09% | 2 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $3.16 | 87.07% | 2 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $3.16 | 87.08% | 2 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $3.16 | 87.07% | 2 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $3.16 | 87.07% | 2 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $3.16 | 87.07% | 2 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $3.16 | 87.07% | 2 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $3.16 | 87.06% | 2 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $3.16 | 87.06% | 2 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.16 | 86.64% | 2 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 4.4%light blue 95.6%best hit —