SYNERGY
A case on Key-Drop (KINGS CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$12.46
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $10.90 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.92%
7,790 openings, odds method
Variance
7.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,790 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1 | 1 in 5,000 | $1,169 | 2.1% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.64× |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 244 | $287 | 10.8% | 34 | 31.9 | 1.06× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3 | 1 in 135 | $162 | 11.0% | 63 | 57.6 | 1.09× |
| M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 132 | $154 | 10.7% | 64 | 59.2 | 1.08× |
| M4A4 | Full Throttle (Minimal Wear)weapon · red | 1 in 74 | $86.69 | 10.8% | 115 | 105.9 | 1.09× |
| AK-47 | Nightwish (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 62 | $73.13 | 10.8% | 131 | 125.4 | 1.04× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · gold | 1 in 41 | $47.99 | 10.8% | 194 | 191.6 | 1.01× |
| AK-47 | Inheritance (Field-Tested)weapon · red | 1 in 36 | $42.81 | 10.8% | 193 | 215.0 | 0.90× |
| USP-S | Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $23.44 | 10.8% | 367 | 391.8 | 0.94× |
| Charm | Glitter Bombcharm · red | 1 in 13 | $14.74 | 10.8% | 628 | 623.2 | 1.01× |
| MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare | 76.8% | $0.06 | 0.4% | 6,000 | 5986.6 | 1.00× |
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/synergy, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $12.46 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $12.46 | 87.06% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $12.46 | 87.08% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $12.46 | 87.27% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $12.46 | 87.87% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $12.46 | 87.18% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $12.46 | 87.10% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $12.46 | 87.75% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $12.46 | 87.05% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $12.46 | 87.67% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $12.46 | 87.02% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $12.46 | 87.43% | 11 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $12.46 | 87.60% | 11 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $12.46 | 87.14% | 11 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $12.46 | 87.37% | 11 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $12.46 | 87.38% | 11 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $12.46 | 87.23% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 3.1%extraordinary 0.4%red 12.1%gold 2.5%classified 5.0%Rare 76.8%best hit $1,205 (96.68x)