TARIFA
A case on Key-Drop (YOUTUBERS CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$80.00
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $70.00 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.54%
1,952 openings, odds method
Variance
16.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 30
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,952 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $10.2K | 1.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $6,939 | 9.9% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.02× |
| Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 250 | $1,685 | 9.6% | 5 | 7.8 | 0.64× |
| M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 233 | $1,572 | 9.7% | 11 | 8.4 | 1.31× |
| ★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 196 | $1,319 | 9.6% | 9 | 10.0 | 0.90× |
| AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 116 | $783 | 9.6% | 29 | 16.8 | 1.73× |
| M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 97 | $653 | 9.6% | 18 | 20.1 | 0.90× |
| AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 90 | $609 | 9.6% | 20 | 21.7 | 0.92× |
| ★ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · legendary | 1 in 81 | $550 | 9.7% | 27 | 24.0 | 1.12× |
| Sticker | Flammablesticker · pink | 1 in 17 | $113 | 9.6% | 120 | 116.1 | 1.03× |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 15 | $101 | 9.6% | 109 | 130.0 | 0.84× |
| M4A1-S | Liquidation (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted | 81.7% | $1.65 | 1.9% | 1,602 | 1595.0 | 1.00× |
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/tarifa-3, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $80.00 | 87.50% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $80.00 | 87.35% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $80.00 | 86.85% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $80.00 | 87.73% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $80.00 | 87.79% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $80.00 | 87.75% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $80.00 | 87.21% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $80.00 | 87.39% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $80.00 | 87.61% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $80.00 | 87.83% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $80.00 | 87.90% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $80.00 | 87.69% | 12 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $80.00 | 87.36% | 12 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $80.00 | 87.13% | 12 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $80.00 | 87.31% | 12 |
| 3 Nov, 15:54 UTC | $80.00 | 86.91% | 12 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $80.00 | 87.35% | 12 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $80.00 | 87.77% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 9.3%restricted 82.1%classified 1.5%legendary 1.2%pink 5.9%best hit $6,939 (86.74x)