TECH
A case on Key-Drop (KINGS CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$0.60
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $0.52 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
69.02%
27.6K openings, odds method
Variance
66.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 232
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.34% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (58.87% – 79.16%, 27,551 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 27.6K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Gut Knife | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $101 | 19.3% | 14 | 27.6 | 0.51× |
| AWP | Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested)weapon · rare | 1 in 694 | $70.76 | 19.4% | 43 | 39.7 | 1.08× |
| AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 535 | $54.15 | 19.3% | 54 | 51.6 | 1.05× |
| AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested)weapon · pink | 1 in 107 | $10.77 | 19.2% | 213 | 257.9 | 0.83× |
| USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical | 1 in 32 | $3.23 | 19.2% | 501 | 860.8 | 0.58× |
| P250 | Plum Netting (Field-Tested)weapon · gray | 95.5% | $0.02 | 3.6% | 26,755 | 26342.5 | 1.02× |
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/tech, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $0.60 | 87.50% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $0.60 | 87.50% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $0.60 | 86.75% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $0.60 | 86.92% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $0.60 | 87.12% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.60 | 86.94% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $0.60 | 86.97% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $0.60 | 90.43% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $0.60 | 87.70% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $0.60 | 87.73% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $0.60 | 87.40% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $0.60 | 87.64% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $0.60 | 87.13% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $0.60 | 86.59% | 6 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $0.60 | 87.05% | 6 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $0.60 | 87.37% | 6 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.60 | 87.54% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.3%rare 0.1%pink 0.9%Mythical 3.1%gray 95.5%best hit $103 (172.4x)