TERRORIST
A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$2.21
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $1.93 from 36 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.52%
8,970 openings, odds method
Variance
2.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
22.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.47% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (78.30% – 84.74%, 8,970 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,992 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/terrorist, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $2.21 | 87.50% | 36 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $2.21 | 88.28% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $2.21 | 87.36% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $2.21 | 86.83% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $2.21 | 87.27% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $2.21 | 87.58% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $2.21 | 87.59% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $2.21 | 87.72% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $2.21 | 87.08% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $2.21 | 87.71% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $2.21 | 87.47% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $2.21 | 87.83% | 36 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $2.21 | 87.87% | 36 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $2.21 | 87.50% | 36 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $2.21 | 87.53% | 36 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $2.21 | 87.46% | 36 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.21 | 87.49% | 36 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedgold 0.0%covert 0.0%red 0.0%classified 4.8%Ancient 0.0%Legendary 0.0%Mythical 2.5%violet 66.4%pink 3.7%Rare 6.9%blue 15.5%best hit —