TIGER
A case on Key-Drop (RISK ZONE), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$1.20
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $1.05 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.07%
39.7K openings, odds method
Variance
39.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 130
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
69.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 39.8K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Gut Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 588 | $123 | 20.0% | 64 | 67.6 | 0.95× |
| AWP | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 455 | $94.65 | 19.8% | 84 | 87.5 | 0.96× |
| AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 263 | $54.15 | 19.6% | 122 | 151.2 | 0.81× |
| Glock-18 | Weasel (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical | 13.2% | $1.56 | 19.6% | 5,418 | 5252.8 | 1.03× |
| MP9 | Goo (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical | 16.7% | $1.24 | 19.7% | 6,391 | 6629.7 | 0.96× |
| SCAR-20 | Zinc (Field-Tested)weapon · gray | 69.4% | $0.02 | 1.3% | 27,715 | 27605.1 | 1.00× |
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/tiger, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $1.20 | 87.50% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $1.20 | 88.11% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $1.20 | 88.22% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $1.20 | 88.45% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $1.20 | 87.15% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.20 | 87.52% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $1.20 | 87.28% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $1.20 | 87.29% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $1.20 | 87.75% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $1.20 | 87.82% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $1.20 | 86.87% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $1.20 | 88.15% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $1.20 | 87.87% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $1.20 | 87.85% | 6 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $1.20 | 88.13% | 6 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $1.20 | 87.33% | 6 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.20 | 87.49% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.8%Mythical 29.9%gray 69.4%best hit $124 (103.4x)