TRICKSTER

A case on Key-Drop (HALLOWEEN), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$7.50

Advertised RTP

87.77%

EV $6.58 from 33 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.07%

49.5K openings, odds method

Variance

3.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

31.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

68.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

86.05%±1.9935.4K openings

30 days

87.07%±1.6949.5K openings

since tracking started

87.07%±1.6949.5K openings

83.5%86.5%89.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	35.4K	86.05%±1.99	−1.8σ	odds
30d	49.5K	87.07%±1.69	−0.9σ	odds
All	49.5K	87.07%±1.69	−0.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 49.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 33,333	$1,680	0.8%	2	1.5	1.34×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 14,286	$1,100	1.2%	6	3.5	1.73×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 10,000	$251	0.4%	1	5.0	0.20×
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 10,000	$247	0.4%	3	5.0	0.61×
★ Paracord Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 5,000	$136	0.4%	12	9.9	1.21×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 10,000	$87.70	0.1%	4	5.0	0.81×
AWP \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 10,000	$78.89	0.1%	4	5.0	0.81×
AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,667	$57.98	0.5%	16	29.7	0.54×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 1,000	$56.20	0.9%	30	49.6	0.61×
AWP \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 1,429	$53.70	0.6%	20	34.7	0.58×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 909	$53.59	0.9%	21	54.5	0.39×
AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 1,429	$52.56	0.6%	26	34.7	0.75×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,111	$33.71	0.5%	18	44.6	0.40×
P2000 \| Woodsman (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 130	$25.97	3.0%	218	381.7	0.57×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 137	$23.28	2.6%	221	361.8	0.61×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 130	$22.80	2.7%	213	381.7	0.56×
P2000 \| Woodsman (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 75	$19.80	4.0%	397	659.3	0.60×
Galil AR \| Vandal (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 19	$12.10	9.8%	2,711	2632.1	1.03×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 37	$10.64	4.3%	812	1333.4	0.61×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 24	$8.53	5.4%	1,424	2076.9	0.69×
Sticker \| Kawaii Tsticker · violet	1 in 13	$8.27	9.8%	3,516	3856.4	0.91×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 13	$8.26	9.8%	3,615	3871.3	0.93×
G3SG1 \| Orange Kimono (Battle-Scarred)weapon · gray	1 in 13	$4.79	5.7%	4,044	3910.9	1.03×
PP-Bizon \| Bamboo Print (Battle-Scarred)weapon · gray	1 in 12	$4.39	5.4%	4,065	4049.7	1.00×
P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 12	$4.38	5.5%	4,182	4079.4	1.03×
Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 40	$4.36	1.7%	881	1249.1	0.71×
Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 35	$3.93	1.7%	976	1417.6	0.69×
G3SG1 \| Stinger (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 12	$3.88	5.1%	4,479	4248.0	1.05×
UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 12	$3.81	5.0%	4,496	4282.7	1.05×
P2000 \| Turf (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 11	$3.76	5.0%	4,524	4317.4	1.05×
Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 31	$3.68	1.8%	1,037	1586.2	0.65×
P2000 \| Panther Camo (Well-Worn)weapon · blueLight	1 in 22	$3.25	2.3%	1,423	2260.3	0.63×
P2000 \| Panther Camo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · light blue	1 in 21	$3.17	2.3%	1,471	2329.7	0.63×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/trickster-2, 10 Nov, 02:22 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · EmeraldBong$7.50$1,664221.9x7d

★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · EmeraldBong$7.50$1,661221.5x7d

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$7.50$1,121149.5x7d

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$7.50$1,100146.6x1d

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$7.50$1,096146.2x8d

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyRustyBoy$7.50$1,093145.8x4d

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$7.50$1,079143.9x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P250 | Visions (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkMorci$7.50$4.380.58x1d

AK-47 | Searing Rage (Minimal Wear)weapon · pinkMRX$7.50$8.261.10x1d

P250 | Visions (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkMRX$7.50$4.380.58x1d

Sticker | Kawaii Tsticker · violetMRX$7.50$8.271.10x1d

P250 | Visions (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkMorci$7.50$4.380.58x1d

Sticker | Kawaii Tsticker · violet$7.50$8.271.10x1d

Galil AR | Vandal (Factory New)weapon · blue$7.50$12.101.61x1d

P2000 | Turf (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff$7.50$3.760.50x1d

AK-47 | Searing Rage (Minimal Wear)weapon · pinkMRX$7.50$8.261.10x1d

P250 | Visions (Field-Tested)weapon · pink$7.50$4.380.58x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.77%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$7.50	87.77%	33
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$7.50	87.92%	33
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$7.50	87.68%	33
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$7.50	87.64%	33
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$7.50	87.83%	33
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$7.50	87.99%	33
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$7.50	88.10%	33
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$7.50	87.96%	33
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$7.50	87.72%	33
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$7.50	88.00%	33
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$7.50	87.95%	33
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$7.50	87.96%	33
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$7.50	87.77%	33
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$7.50	87.74%	33
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$7.50	87.76%	33

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%gold 0.0%rare 0.1%Ancient 0.1%red 0.3%classified 3.5%restricted 0.8%pink 38.2%violet 17.7%blue 5.3%gray 16.1%#4b69ff 8.7%blueLight 4.6%light blue 4.7%best hit $1,664 (221.9x)