ZLASHY JOKER

A case on Key-Drop, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$91.38

Advertised RTP

—

no catalog

Observed RTP, 30d

81.17%

584 openings, sample method

Variance

—

needs odds

Tail share

—

needs odds

Below price

—

needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

226 openings · below min

7 days

446 openings · below min

30 days

584 openings · below min

since tracking started

584 openings · below min

42.0%70.8%99.5%

Small sample. 584 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	226	64.73%±21.9	—	sample
7d	446	81.54%±17.2	—	sample
30d	584	81.17%±15.1	—	sample
All	584	81.17%±15.1	—	sample

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogKey-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare$91.26$8098.86x8d

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rareUnreal.-$91.06$8018.80x6d

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare$91.07$8018.80x7d

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare0nz$91.64$7948.66x1d

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare0nz$91.61$7948.67x1d

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare$91.61$7948.67x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | Taste Buddysticker · violetkacper hehe. [*]$91.64$3.840.04x27m

Sticker | Taste Buddysticker · violetkacper hehe. [*]$90.09$3.820.04x28m

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare$90.09$7758.60x28m

Sticker | Chrome Domesticker · violet$90.09$2.730.03x28m

AK-47 | Searing Rage (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkkacper hehe. [*]$91.64$5.270.06x1h

Sticker | Chrome Domesticker · violet$90.09$2.730.03x1h

★ Ursus Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert$90.09$1101.22x1h

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare$90.09$7758.60x1h

AK-47 | Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink$90.09$10.220.11x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $809 (8.86x)