5% Lore

A case on Rain.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$4.38

6.25 coins

Advertised RTP

—

no catalog

Observed RTP, 30d

93.53%

127K openings, sample method

Variance

—

needs odds

Tail share

—

needs odds

Below price

—

needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

85.48%±13.8011.1K openings

7 days

92.23%±5.5794.2K openings

30 days

93.53%±4.82127K openings

since tracking started

93.53%±4.82127K openings

71.0%85.5%100.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	11.1K	85.48%±13.8	—	sample
7d	94.2K	92.23%±5.57	—	sample
30d	127K	93.53%±4.82	—	sample
All	127K	93.53%±4.82	—	sample

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogRain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.

Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$4.386.25 coins$3,8915,559 coins889.4x5d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert$4.386.25 coins$1,5912,273 coins363.7x1d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covertHolo-.-$4.386.25 coins$1,5912,273 coins363.7x2d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert$4.386.25 coins$1,5912,273 coins363.7x2d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covertHolo-.-$4.386.25 coins$1,5912,273 coins363.7x2d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covertDimitri$4.386.25 coins$1,5912,273 coins363.7x2d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert$4.386.25 coins$1,5912,273 coins363.7x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | Baby Loresticker · high$4.386.25 coins$0.260.37 coins0.06x7s

★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Well-Worn)knife · Covert$4.386.25 coins$89.00127 coins20.34x7s

Sticker | Baby Loresticker · high$4.386.25 coins$0.260.37 coins0.06x7s

Sticker | Baby Loresticker · highRonaldo$4.386.25 coins$0.260.37 coins0.06x7s

Sticker | Baby Loresticker · high$4.386.25 coins$0.260.37 coins0.06x1m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $3,891 (889.4x)