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AWP vs Rifle

A case on Rain.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$89.26
128 coins
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
93.59%
661 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
66 openings · below min
7 days
462 openings · below min
30 days
661 openings · below min
since tracking started
661 openings · below min
42.5%73.3%104.0%

Small sample. 661 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h6659.30%±16.2—sample
7d46291.67%±10.9—sample
30d66193.59%±9.54—sample
All66193.59%±9.54—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogRain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · #EB4B4B$89.26128 coins$8961,281 coins10.04x
StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert$89.26128 coins$8341,192 coins9.35x
StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert$89.26128 coins$8341,192 coins9.35x
StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert$89.26128 coins$8341,192 coins9.35x
StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert$89.26128 coins$8341,192 coins9.35x
StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert$89.26128 coins$8341,192 coins9.35x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert$89.26128 coins$137195 coins1.53x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Player Two (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert$89.26128 coins$41.1258.74 coins0.46x
AWP | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$89.26128 coins$21.9931.42 coins0.25x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covertwhiff$89.26128 coins$137195 coins1.53x
AK-47 | Slate (Factory New)weapon · restricted$89.26128 coins$8.8912.7 coins0.10x
AWP | Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical$89.26128 coins$3.565.08 coins0.04x
AWP | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$89.26128 coins$21.9931.42 coins0.25x
StatTrak™ AWP | Electric Hive (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedwhiff$89.26128 coins$104149 coins1.17x
AK-47 | Slate (Factory New)weapon · restricted$89.26128 coins$8.8912.7 coins0.10x
AWP | Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical$89.26128 coins$3.565.08 coins0.04x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $896 (10.04x)