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Black Lotus

A case on Rain.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$20.05
28.65 coins
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
88.88%
819 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
48 openings · below min
7 days
483 openings · below min
30 days
819 openings · below min
since tracking started
819 openings · below min
64.5%88.5%112.5%

Small sample. 819 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h4888.53%±23.5—sample
7d48390.23%±7.78—sample
30d81988.88%±5.87—sample
All81988.88%±5.87—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogRain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$20.0528.65 coins$59.6285.17 coins2.97x
USP-S | Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue$20.0528.65 coins$0.701 coins0.03x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · pink$20.0528.65 coins$30.7643.94 coins1.53x
StatTrak™ USP-S | Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$20.0528.65 coins$10.1914.56 coins0.51x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · pink$20.0528.65 coins$22.4732.1 coins1.12x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · pinkmarkmosab$20.0528.65 coins$30.7643.94 coins1.53x
StatTrak™ USP-S | Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$20.0528.65 coins$10.1914.56 coins0.51x
USP-S | Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue$20.0528.65 coins$0.701 coins0.03x
StatTrak™ USP-S | Black Lotus (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$20.0528.65 coins$26.5937.98 coins1.33x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · pink$20.0528.65 coins$22.4732.1 coins1.12x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit —