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Blacksmith

A case on Rain.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$91.11
130 coins
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
84.97%
509 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
7 days
331 openings · below min
30 days
509 openings · below min
since tracking started
509 openings · below min
69.0%84.3%99.5%

Small sample. 509 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h0———
7d33184.37%±14.7—sample
30d50984.97%±11.0—sample
All50984.97%±11.0—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogRain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$91.11130 coins$1,2991,856 coins14.26x
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert$91.11130 coins$622888 coins6.83x
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · CovertMeluhdy$91.11130 coins$622888 coins6.83x
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert$91.11130 coins$567809 coins6.22x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$91.11130 coins$90.72130 coins1.00x
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$91.11130 coins$90.72130 coins1.00x
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$91.11130 coins$90.72130 coins1.00x
Souvenir SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$91.11130 coins$7.8511.21 coins0.09x
Souvenir SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$91.11130 coins$7.8511.21 coins0.09x
Souvenir SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec GradeFixedinho$91.11130 coins$7.8511.21 coins0.09x
Souvenir SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$91.11130 coins$7.8511.21 coins0.09x
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$91.11130 coins$90.72130 coins1.00x
Souvenir SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$91.11130 coins$7.8511.21 coins0.09x
Souvenir SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$91.11130 coins$7.8511.21 coins0.09x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $1,299 (14.26x)