Bright Lights

A case on Rain.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$4.16

5.94 coins

Advertised RTP

—

no catalog

Observed RTP, 30d

89.96%

22.9K openings, sample method

Variance

—

needs odds

Tail share

—

needs odds

Below price

—

needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

85.24%±42.721,764 openings

7 days

90.90%±10.0118.8K openings

30 days

89.96%±8.8022.9K openings

since tracking started

89.96%±8.8022.9K openings

42.0%85.2%128.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,764	85.24%±42.7	—	sample
7d	18.8K	90.90%±10.0	—	sample
30d	22.9K	89.96%±8.80	—	sample
All	22.9K	89.96%±8.80	—	sample

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogRain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.

Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted$4.165.94 coins$1,4982,140 coins360.2x11h

Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted$4.165.94 coins$1,4982,140 coins360.2x2d

Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restrictedBaRuT７７７ツ$4.165.94 coins$1,4982,140 coins360.2x2d

Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted$4.165.94 coins$1,4982,140 coins360.2x3d

AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covertLanik$4.165.94 coins$9781,398 coins235.3x2d

AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covertBG2x$4.165.94 coins$9781,398 coins235.3x3d

AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert$4.165.94 coins$9781,398 coins235.3x7d

Five-SeveN | Neon Kimono (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted$4.165.94 coins$469670 coins112.7x2d

Five-SeveN | Neon Kimono (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedLazereyes$4.165.94 coins$469670 coins112.7x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | rain (Glitter) | Rio 2022sticker · Remarkable$4.165.94 coins$0.120.17 coins0.03x43s

Sticker | rain (Glitter) | Rio 2022sticker · Remarkablepf$4.165.94 coins$0.120.17 coins0.03x43s

Sticker | rain (Glitter) | Rio 2022sticker · Remarkable$4.165.94 coins$0.120.17 coins0.03x2m

Sticker | rain (Glitter) | Rio 2022sticker · Remarkablepf$4.165.94 coins$0.120.17 coins0.03x2m

Sticker | rain (Glitter) | Rio 2022sticker · Remarkable$4.165.94 coins$0.120.17 coins0.03x3m

R8 Revolver | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$4.165.94 coins$6.479.24 coins1.56x3m

MP9 | Starlight Protector (Well-Worn)weapon · red$4.165.94 coins$2.343.34 coins0.56x3m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $1,498 (360.2x)