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Bruised

A case on Rain.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$133.29
190 coins
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
72.20%
466 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
35 openings · below min
7 days
369 openings · below min
30 days
466 openings · below min
since tracking started
466 openings · below min
36.5%72.5%108.5%

Small sample. 466 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h3572.60%±35.4—sample
7d36973.89%±11.3—sample
30d46672.20%±9.18—sample
All46672.20%±9.18—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogRain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

MP9 | Wild Lily (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$133190 coins$1,9872,838 coins14.91x
StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert$133190 coins$8341,191 coins6.26x
StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covertKim$133190 coins$8341,191 coins6.26x
StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · coverttwitch.tv/MrBarnee$133190 coins$8341,191 coins6.26x
StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert$133190 coins$8341,191 coins6.26x
StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covertHitTheTargetCS$133190 coins$8341,191 coins6.26x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Decimator (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$133190 coins$77.12110 coins0.58x
CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New)weapon · classified$133190 coins$47.8068.28 coins0.36x
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Decimator (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedswerve$133190 coins$101144 coins0.76x
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Decimator (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$133190 coins$101144 coins0.76x
Glock-18 | Moonrise (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Restricted$133190 coins$0.290.41 coins0.00x
CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New)weapon · classifiedswerve$133190 coins$47.8068.28 coins0.36x
Glock-18 | Moonrise (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Restricted$133190 coins$0.290.41 coins0.00x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Decimator (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$133190 coins$77.12110 coins0.58x
CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New)weapon · classifiedswerve$133190 coins$47.8068.28 coins0.36x
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Decimator (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$133190 coins$101144 coins0.76x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $1,987 (14.91x)