Defence

A case on Rain.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$9.07

12.96 coins

Advertised RTP

—

no catalog

Observed RTP, 30d

80.58%

15.7K openings, sample method

Variance

—

needs odds

Tail share

—

needs odds

Below price

—

needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

77.52%±15.381,852 openings

7 days

83.11%±8.0212.9K openings

30 days

80.58%±7.1015.7K openings

since tracking started

80.58%±7.1015.7K openings

61.5%77.5%93.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,852	77.52%±15.4	—	sample
7d	12.9K	83.11%±8.02	—	sample
30d	15.7K	80.58%±7.10	—	sample
All	15.7K	80.58%±7.10	—	sample

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogRain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.

Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$9.0712.96 coins$1,0121,446 coins111.6x2d

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$9.0712.96 coins$1,0121,446 coins111.6x3d

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · EmeraldBG2x$9.0712.96 coins$1,0121,446 coins111.6x4d

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$9.0712.96 coins$1,0121,446 coins111.6x4d

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$9.0712.96 coins$1,0121,446 coins111.6x6d

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emeraldcpt.$9.0712.96 coins$1,0121,446 coins111.6x7d

M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$9.0712.96 coins$685978 coins75.47x1d

M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$9.0712.96 coins$685978 coins75.47x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Souvenir Galil AR | Cerberus (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted$9.0712.96 coins$53.1475.92 coins5.86x1m

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Powercore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff$9.0712.96 coins$0.711.01 coins0.08x1m

Souvenir MP7 | Motherboard (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$9.0712.96 coins$0.060.08 coins0.01x1m

MP7 | Tall Grass (Factory New)weapon · industrial$9.0712.96 coins$3.515.01 coins0.39x1m

Souvenir MP7 | Motherboard (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$9.0712.96 coins$0.060.08 coins0.01x1m

Souvenir MP7 | Motherboard (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial GradeStorkentrooper$9.0712.96 coins$0.060.08 coins0.01x1m

Souvenir MP7 | Motherboard (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$9.0712.96 coins$0.060.08 coins0.01x1m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $1,012 (111.6x)