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El Diablo

A case on Rain.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$546.34
780 coins
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
76.85%
767 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
171 openings · below min
7 days
669 openings · below min
30 days
767 openings · below min
since tracking started
767 openings · below min
40.5%66.3%92.0%

Small sample. 767 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h17161.68%±20.5—sample
7d66975.42%±15.6—sample
30d76776.85%±14.5—sample
All76776.85%±14.5—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogRain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$546780 coins$11.9K16,978 coins21.75x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby$546780 coins$8,83012,614 coins16.16x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby$546780 coins$8,83012,614 coins16.16x
Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$546780 coins$7,54210,774 coins13.80x
Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$546780 coins$7,54210,774 coins13.80x
Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$546780 coins$7,54210,774 coins13.80x
M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband$546780 coins$5,8968,424 coins10.79x
M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband$546780 coins$5,8968,424 coins10.79x
M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband$546780 coins$5,8968,424 coins10.79x
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertI Identify as a Helicop$546780 coins$5,0057,150 coins9.16x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
★ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert$546780 coins$89.00127 coins0.16x
★ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert$546780 coins$89.00127 coins0.16x
★ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert$546780 coins$89.00127 coins0.16x
Sticker | iBUYPOWER | DreamHack 2014sticker · highHiccupplayz$546780 coins$186266 coins0.34x
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$546780 coins$396566 coins0.72x
★ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert$546780 coins$89.00127 coins0.16x
★ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert$546780 coins$89.00127 coins0.16x
★ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert$546780 coins$89.00127 coins0.16x
★ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert$546780 coins$89.00127 coins0.16x
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$546780 coins$396566 coins0.72x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $11.9K (21.75x)