Faded

A case on Rain.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$247.16
353 coins
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
102.91%
96 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
7 days
47 openings · below min
30 days
96 openings · below min
since tracking started
96 openings · below min
68.0%97.0%126.0%

Small sample. 96 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h0———
7d4796.42%±28.0—sample
30d96102.91%±22.5—sample
All96102.91%±22.5—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogRain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted$247353 coins$1,3561,937 coins5.49x
AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert$247353 coins$1,0111,445 coins4.09x
AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert$247353 coins$1,0111,445 coins4.09x
★ Stiletto Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$247353 coins$7221,032 coins2.92x
★ Stiletto Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$247353 coins$7221,032 coins2.92x
★ Classic Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$247353 coins$577824 coins2.33x
★ Classic Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$247353 coins$577824 coins2.33x
★ Classic Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$247353 coins$577824 coins2.33x

Latest dropsnewest first

★ Falchion Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$247353 coins$330471 coins1.34x
MAC-10 | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec Grade$247353 coins$41.4059.14 coins0.17x
★ Bowie Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$247353 coins$440629 coins1.78x
★ Gut Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$247353 coins$215307 coins0.87x
★ Bowie Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$247353 coins$440629 coins1.78x
MP7 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted$247353 coins$6.969.94 coins0.03x
★ Shadow Daggers | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$247353 coins$236337 coins0.96x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $1,356 (5.49x)