Falchion
A case on Rain.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.15
4.5 coins
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
86.54%
13.9K openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and valuesnone published
No catalogRain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.
Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Falchion Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covertBadPlayer_x$3.154.5 coins$348498 coins110.6x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$3.154.5 coins$0.280.4 coins0.09x
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$3.154.5 coins$0.280.4 coins0.09x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert$3.154.5 coins$97.94140 coins31.09x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedDepDom$3.154.5 coins$4.776.81 coins1.51x
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$3.154.5 coins$0.280.4 coins0.09x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, daily
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedbest hit $2,790 (885.8x)