Fracture

A case on Rain.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$3.79

5.42 coins

Advertised RTP

—

no catalog

Observed RTP, 30d

83.93%

12.7K openings, sample method

Variance

—

needs odds

Tail share

—

needs odds

Below price

—

needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

975 openings · below min

7 days

85.15%±15.6510.7K openings

30 days

83.93%±14.2412.7K openings

since tracking started

83.93%±14.2412.7K openings

41.0%93.5%146.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	975	93.61%±51.8	—	sample
7d	10.7K	85.15%±15.7	—	sample
30d	12.7K	83.93%±14.2	—	sample
All	12.7K	83.93%±14.2	—	sample

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogRain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.

Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · legendary$3.795.42 coins$1,3601,942 coins358.3x2d

★ Nomad Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary$3.795.42 coins$1,2551,793 coins330.8x2d

★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert$3.795.42 coins$8561,223 coins225.7x20h

★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert$3.795.42 coins$8561,223 coins225.7x8d

★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B$3.795.42 coins$7391,056 coins194.8x2d

★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4BPIZZaNazis$3.795.42 coins$7391,056 coins194.8x7d

★ Skeleton Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · gold$3.795.42 coins$576823 coins151.9x1d

★ Nomad Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · Immortal$3.795.42 coins$572817 coins150.6x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Runic (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff$3.795.42 coins$1.061.52 coins0.28x2m

StatTrak™ P90 | Freight (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$3.795.42 coins$0.701 coins0.18x2m

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Allure (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restrictedpf$3.795.42 coins$4.175.95 coins1.10x2m

P250 | Cassette (Factory New)weapon · blue$3.795.42 coins$0.280.4 coins0.07x5m

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Vogue (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$3.795.42 coins$20.8529.78 coins5.49x5m

MP5-SD | Kitbash (Factory New)weapon · Mythicalpf$3.795.42 coins$1.572.24 coins0.41x5m

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Runic (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff$3.795.42 coins$1.061.52 coins0.28x8m

StatTrak™ P2000 | Gnarled (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspecpf$3.795.42 coins$0.781.11 coins0.20x8m

StatTrak™ P90 | Freight (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$3.795.42 coins$0.701 coins0.18x9m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $1,360 (358.3x)