Framework
A case on Rain.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$38.71
55.3 coins
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
91.50%
413 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 413 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and valuesnone published
No catalogRain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.
Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Covert$38.7155.3 coins$537768 coins13.88x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Covert$38.7155.3 coins$537768 coins13.88x
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir P90 | Schematic (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$38.7155.3 coins$2.253.21 coins0.06x
Souvenir P90 | Schematic (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$38.7155.3 coins$2.253.21 coins0.06x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, daily
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedbest hit $537 (13.88x)