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joonXO

A case on Rain.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$132.35
189 coins
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
70.31%
736 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
140 openings · below min
7 days
635 openings · below min
30 days
736 openings · below min
since tracking started
736 openings · below min
36.5%62.7%89.0%

Small sample. 736 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h14056.48%±19.5—sample
7d63573.96%±14.2—sample
30d73670.31%±12.7—sample
All73670.31%±12.7—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogRain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert$132189 coins$2,2283,184 coins16.84x
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert$132189 coins$2,2283,184 coins16.84x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertSmabu$132189 coins$1,8072,581 coins13.65x
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Stained (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$132189 coins$1,4042,006 coins10.61x
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Stained (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$132189 coins$1,4042,006 coins10.61x
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Stained (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$132189 coins$1,4042,006 coins10.61x
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Stained (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$132189 coins$1,4042,006 coins10.61x
★ Karambit | Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert$132189 coins$1,1721,674 coins8.85x
★ Karambit | Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert$132189 coins$1,1721,674 coins8.85x
★ Karambit | Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert$132189 coins$1,1721,674 coins8.85x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Nova | Rising Skull (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted$132189 coins$3.555.07 coins0.03x
★ Falchion Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert$132189 coins$177253 coins1.34x
Nova | Rising Skull (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted$132189 coins$3.555.07 coins0.03x
USP-S | Whiteout (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$132189 coins$35.8551.21 coins0.27x
Nova | Rising Skull (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted$132189 coins$3.555.07 coins0.03x
Nova | Rising Skull (Well-Worn)weapon · RestrictedFybZ$132189 coins$3.555.07 coins0.03x
Nova | Rising Skull (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted$132189 coins$3.555.07 coins0.03x
Nova | Rising Skull (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted$132189 coins$3.555.07 coins0.03x
Nova | Rising Skull (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted$132189 coins$3.555.07 coins0.03x
★ Falchion Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert$132189 coins$177253 coins1.34x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $2,228 (16.84x)