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Least Resistance

A case on Rain.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$151.08
216 coins
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
84.58%
271 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
29 openings · below min
7 days
194 openings · below min
30 days
271 openings · below min
since tracking started
271 openings · below min
17.0%85.5%154.0%

Small sample. 271 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h2985.35%±67.8—sample
7d19481.66%±17.4—sample
30d27184.58%±15.4—sample
All27184.58%±15.4—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogRain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$151216 coins$1,1521,645 coins7.62x
Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$151216 coins$1,1121,588 coins7.36x
Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$151216 coins$1,1121,588 coins7.36x
Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restrictedtwitch.tv/MrBarnee$151216 coins$1,1121,588 coins7.36x
Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$151216 coins$1,1121,588 coins7.36x
Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$151216 coins$1,1121,588 coins7.36x
Sticker | LGB eSports | Katowice 2014sticker · hightwitch.tv/MrBarnee$151216 coins$674963 coins4.46x
Sticker | LGB eSports | Katowice 2014sticker · high$151216 coins$674963 coins4.46x
Sticker | LGB eSports | Katowice 2014sticker · highSpicyStakes$151216 coins$674963 coins4.46x
Sticker | LGB eSports | Katowice 2014sticker · high$151216 coins$674963 coins4.46x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
P2000 | Pathfinder (Factory New)weapon · industrial$151216 coins$17.3024.71 coins0.11x
Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$151216 coins$1,1121,588 coins7.36x
Dual Berettas | Cobra Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$151216 coins$32.6546.65 coins0.22x
Dual Berettas | Cobra Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedACASS45$151216 coins$32.6546.65 coins0.22x
★ Hydra Gloves | Mangrove (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$151216 coins$58.3783.38 coins0.39x
AWP | Silk Tiger (Well-Worn)weapon · classified$151216 coins$111158 coins0.73x
P2000 | Pathfinder (Factory New)weapon · industrial$151216 coins$17.3024.71 coins0.11x
Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Factory New)weapon · classifiedACASS45$151216 coins$399570 coins2.64x
P2000 | Pathfinder (Factory New)weapon · industrial$151216 coins$17.3024.71 coins0.11x
P2000 | Pathfinder (Factory New)weapon · industrial$151216 coins$17.3024.71 coins0.11x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $1,152 (7.62x)