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Big wins
Blackjack$1,2001.33xDuck Hunters$234148.9xKorean Speed Blackjack G$2,0622.19xDa Hacker$2,636630.5xWaylanders Forge$1,69822.65xLotus Sic Bo$6,0062.00xThe Dog House$1,231184.7xCrash$22.6K2.26xFootball Studio Roulette$3,1532.25xPlinko$2,5684.00xLimbo$3,0962.00xLimbo$3,0962.00xTome of Hercules$1,69260.38xBlackjack$2,4002.00xSweet Bonanza$1,8058.10xVampire Night Bell Link$3,369135.0xMONOPOLY Big Baller$1,5017.50xOutsourced$55.99148.1xRed Strike$12.7K36.06xDusk Princess$131130.5xKeno$645500.0xMines$6,6121.24xBaccarat$1,1701.95xMines$4,8051.48x

Mental

A case on Rain.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$124.44
178 coins
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
100.38%
509 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
72 openings · below min
7 days
423 openings · below min
30 days
509 openings · below min
since tracking started
509 openings · below min
66.5%100.8%135.0%

Small sample. 509 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h72100.61%±33.7—sample
7d42398.11%±18.1—sample
30d509100.38%±16.2—sample
All509100.38%±16.2—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogRain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby$124178 coins$3,7945,420 coins30.49x
★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$124178 coins$1,5132,162 coins12.16x
★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$124178 coins$1,5132,162 coins12.16x
AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert$124178 coins$1,0651,522 coins8.56x
★ Karambit | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · rare$124178 coins$7181,025 coins5.77x
★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$124178 coins$636909 coins5.11x
★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$124178 coins$636909 coins5.11x
★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$124178 coins$636909 coins5.11x
★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$124178 coins$636909 coins5.11x
★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$124178 coins$636909 coins5.11x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$124178 coins$54.6178.02 coins0.44x
R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet$124178 coins$0.400.57 coins0.00x
R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet$124178 coins$0.400.57 coins0.00x
P90 | Death by Kitty (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$124178 coins$36.4052 coins0.29x
P90 | Death by Kitty (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$124178 coins$36.4052 coins0.29x
M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Factory New)weapon · coverttwitch.tv/MrBarnee$124178 coins$80.32115 coins0.65x
M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Factory New)weapon · covert$124178 coins$80.32115 coins0.65x
MP5-SD | Oxide Oasis (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$124178 coins$282403 coins2.27x
R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet$124178 coins$0.400.57 coins0.00x
Souvenir Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$124178 coins$218311 coins1.75x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $3,794 (30.49x)