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Nightmare

A case on Rain.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$47.80
68.28 coins
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
95.41%
9,070 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
92.87%±23.821,164 openings
7 days
97.24%±10.657,597 openings
30 days
95.41%±9.529,070 openings
since tracking started
95.41%±9.529,070 openings
68.5%93.0%117.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h1,16492.87%±23.8—sample
7d7,59797.24%±10.7—sample
30d9,07095.41%±9.52—sample
All9,07095.41%±9.52—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogRain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert$47.8068.28 coins$5,9448,491 coins124.4x
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$47.8068.28 coins$4,3186,169 coins90.35x
★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$47.8068.28 coins$3,6145,163 coins75.62x
★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$47.8068.28 coins$3,6145,163 coins75.62x
★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinaryROBO VERS$47.8068.28 coins$3,6145,163 coins75.62x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$47.8068.28 coins$3,0494,356 coins63.79x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$47.8068.28 coins$3,0494,356 coins63.79x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$47.8068.28 coins$3,0494,356 coins63.79x
★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert$47.8068.28 coins$1,8502,643 coins38.71x
★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert$47.8068.28 coins$1,8502,643 coins38.71x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade$47.8068.28 coins$0.961.37 coins0.02x
CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade$47.8068.28 coins$0.961.37 coins0.02x
CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade$47.8068.28 coins$0.961.37 coins0.02x
CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade$47.8068.28 coins$0.961.37 coins0.02x
CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade$47.8068.28 coins$0.961.37 coins0.02x
CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Graderose-2fdbca$47.8068.28 coins$0.961.37 coins0.02x
CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade$47.8068.28 coins$0.961.37 coins0.02x
CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade$47.8068.28 coins$0.961.37 coins0.02x
CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade$47.8068.28 coins$0.961.37 coins0.02x
CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade$47.8068.28 coins$0.961.37 coins0.02x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $5,944 (124.4x)