Pilot

A case on Rain.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$1,587.74

2,268 coins

Advertised RTP

—

no catalog

Observed RTP, 30d

55.30%

83 openings, sample method

Variance

—

needs odds

Tail share

—

needs odds

Below price

—

needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

59 openings · below min

30 days

83 openings · below min

since tracking started

83 openings · below min

28.5%51.2%74.0%

Small sample. 83 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	59	50.08%±21.1	—	sample
30d	83	55.30%±18.1	—	sample
All	83	55.30%±18.1	—	sample

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogRain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.

Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$1,5882,268 coins$6,0618,658 coins3.82x3d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$1,5882,268 coins$6,0618,658 coins3.82x4d

ESL One Cologne 2014 Nuke Souvenir Packagecontainer · Base Grade$1,5882,268 coins$4,4336,334 coins2.79x3d

ESL One Cologne 2014 Nuke Souvenir Packagecontainer · Base Grade$1,5882,268 coins$4,4336,334 coins2.79x8d

Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2014sticker · high$1,5882,268 coins$3,4734,961 coins2.19x4d

Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2014sticker · high$1,5882,268 coins$3,4734,961 coins2.19x8d

★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$1,5882,268 coins$2,5863,695 coins1.63x8d

AWP | Medusa (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$1,5882,268 coins$1,9952,850 coins1.26x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A4 | Desolate Space (Factory New)weapon · classified$1,5882,268 coins$93.53134 coins0.06x1d

ESL One Cologne 2014 Overpass Souvenir Packagecontainer · baseswerve$1,5882,268 coins$1,3121,875 coins0.83x1d

M4A4 | Desolate Space (Factory New)weapon · classified$1,5882,268 coins$93.53134 coins0.06x3d

M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified$1,5882,268 coins$621887 coins0.39x3d

M4A4 | Desolate Space (Factory New)weapon · classified$1,5882,268 coins$93.53134 coins0.06x3d

M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classifiedLobanjica$1,5882,268 coins$621887 coins0.39x3d

★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$1,5882,268 coins$1,7292,470 coins1.09x3d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $6,061 (3.82x)