Prickly

A case on Rain.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$30.42

43.46 coins

Advertised RTP

—

no catalog

Observed RTP, 30d

85.01%

1,354 openings, sample method

Variance

—

needs odds

Tail share

—

needs odds

Below price

—

needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

107 openings · below min

7 days

84.77%±15.481,205 openings

30 days

85.01%±14.461,354 openings

since tracking started

85.01%±14.461,354 openings

28.0%74.8%121.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	107	74.95%±46.1	—	sample
7d	1,205	84.77%±15.5	—	sample
30d	1,354	85.01%±14.5	—	sample
All	1,354	85.01%±14.5	—	sample

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogRain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.

Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$30.4243.46 coins$8611,231 coins28.31x5d

AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$30.4243.46 coins$8611,231 coins28.31x6d

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Phase 1$30.4243.46 coins$7731,105 coins25.42x3d

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Phase 1$30.4243.46 coins$7731,105 coins25.42x6d

Gamma Doppler Emeraldother · Covert$30.4243.46 coins$677968 coins22.27x6d

Souvenir Galil AR | Cerberus (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$30.4243.46 coins$545778 coins17.90x7h

Souvenir Galil AR | Cerberus (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$30.4243.46 coins$545778 coins17.90x1d

Souvenir Galil AR | Cerberus (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$30.4243.46 coins$545778 coins17.90x2d

Souvenir Galil AR | Cerberus (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$30.4243.46 coins$545778 coins17.90x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP7 | Powercore (Factory New)weapon · restricted$30.4243.46 coins$5.287.54 coins0.17x2h

PP-Bizon | Chemical Green (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial$30.4243.46 coins$3.254.64 coins0.11x2h

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Covert$30.4243.46 coins$467667 coins15.34x2h

Sticker | On An Eco (Foil)sticker · #d32ce6$30.4243.46 coins$2.253.22 coins0.07x2h

StatTrak™ USP-S | Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedSunny23415$30.4243.46 coins$68.7498.2 coins2.26x2h

MAC-10 | Nuclear Garden (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff$30.4243.46 coins$9.1813.12 coins0.30x7h

Sealed Graffiti | OMG (Jungle Green)graffiti · Base Grade$30.4243.46 coins$0.921.31 coins0.03x7h

Dual Berettas | Emerald (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$30.4243.46 coins$37.9054.15 coins1.25x7h

MAC-10 | Nuclear Garden (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff$30.4243.46 coins$9.1813.12 coins0.30x7h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $861 (28.31x)