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Smooth Seas

A case on Rain.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$38.63
55.18 coins
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
81.98%
386 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
14 openings · below min
7 days
280 openings · below min
30 days
386 openings · below min
since tracking started
386 openings · below min
23.5%86.5%149.5%

Small sample. 386 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h1486.56%±62.5—sample
7d28076.14%±12.5—sample
30d38681.98%±12.4—sample
All38681.98%±12.4—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogRain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified$38.6355.18 coins$545779 coins14.12x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
M249 | Shipping Forecast (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff$38.6355.18 coins$14.9821.4 coins0.39x
Souvenir USP-S | Royal Blue (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$38.6355.18 coins$8.4412.05 coins0.22x
Souvenir USP-S | Royal Blue (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$38.6355.18 coins$8.4412.05 coins0.22x
Souvenir USP-S | Royal Blue (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$38.6355.18 coins$8.4412.05 coins0.22x
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$38.6355.18 coins$178254 coins4.60x
Souvenir USP-S | Royal Blue (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$38.6355.18 coins$8.4412.05 coins0.22x
Souvenir USP-S | Royal Blue (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$38.6355.18 coins$8.4412.05 coins0.22x
Souvenir Dual Berettas | Anodized Navy (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Mil SpecMeroBayBee$38.6355.18 coins$18.2726.1 coins0.47x
Souvenir Dual Berettas | Anodized Navy (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec$38.6355.18 coins$18.2726.1 coins0.47x
USP-S | Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$38.6355.18 coins$64.6192.3 coins1.67x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $545 (14.12x)