The Subs

A case on Rain.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$21.78

31.11 coins

Advertised RTP

—

no catalog

Observed RTP, 30d

89.55%

1,385 openings, sample method

Variance

—

needs odds

Tail share

—

needs odds

Below price

—

needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

96 openings · below min

7 days

92.23%±12.871,138 openings

30 days

89.55%±11.811,385 openings

since tracking started

89.55%±11.811,385 openings

41.5%73.8%106.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	96	70.51%±28.6	—	sample
7d	1,138	92.23%±12.9	—	sample
30d	1,385	89.55%±11.8	—	sample
All	1,385	89.55%±11.8	—	sample

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogRain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.

Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

StatTrak™ P90 | Emerald Dragon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · epic$21.7831.11 coins$9031,291 coins41.48x3d

MP9 | Bulldozer (Factory New)weapon · restricted$21.7831.11 coins$556794 coins25.51x6d

MP9 | Bulldozer (Factory New)weapon · restricted$21.7831.11 coins$556794 coins25.51x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ P90 | Grim (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$21.7831.11 coins$0.200.28 coins0.01x19m

UMP-45 | Wild Child (Factory New)weapon · pink$21.7831.11 coins$12.9318.47 coins0.59x19m

MP9 | Stained Glass (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff$21.7831.11 coins$62.4789.25 coins2.87x19m

UMP-45 | Wild Child (Factory New)weapon · pink$21.7831.11 coins$12.9318.47 coins0.59x19m

MAC-10 | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec Gradekeytowin$21.7831.11 coins$41.0058.57 coins1.88x19m

MAC-10 | Hot Snakes (Factory New)weapon · classified$21.7831.11 coins$184263 coins8.45x21m

StatTrak™ P90 | Grim (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$21.7831.11 coins$0.200.28 coins0.01x21m

MP9 | Mount Fuji (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted$21.7831.11 coins$2.323.32 coins0.11x21m

MAC-10 | Toybox (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink$21.7831.11 coins$5.527.88 coins0.25x21m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $903 (41.48x)