Tied Up

A case on Rain.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$49.49

70.7 coins

Advertised RTP

—

no catalog

Observed RTP, 30d

86.46%

1,196 openings, sample method

Variance

—

needs odds

Tail share

—

needs odds

Below price

—

needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

163 openings · below min

7 days

887 openings · below min

30 days

86.46%±20.031,196 openings

since tracking started

86.46%±20.031,196 openings

22.5%64.8%107.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	163	54.14%±31.1	—	sample
7d	887	76.94%±21.5	—	sample
30d	1,196	86.46%±20.0	—	sample
All	1,196	86.46%±20.0	—	sample

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogRain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.

Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$49.4970.7 coins$2,1563,080 coins43.56x5d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2$49.4970.7 coins$1,7802,543 coins35.96x7d

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$49.4970.7 coins$1,3581,940 coins27.44x1d

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$49.4970.7 coins$1,3581,940 coins27.44x2d

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$49.4970.7 coins$1,3581,940 coins27.44x3d

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Rubyblimbo winkleton #Bestrust$49.4970.7 coins$1,3581,940 coins27.44x3d

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$49.4970.7 coins$1,3581,940 coins27.44x3d

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$49.4970.7 coins$1,3581,940 coins27.44x7d

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$49.4970.7 coins$1,0191,455 coins20.58x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Wild Child (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$49.4970.7 coins$2.133.04 coins0.04x2h

M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified$49.4970.7 coins$562803 coins11.35x2h

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Wild Child (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$49.4970.7 coins$2.133.04 coins0.04x2h

MP7 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted$49.4970.7 coins$5.047.2 coins0.10x2h

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Wild Child (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · ClassifiedDesTRoyer 么$49.4970.7 coins$2.133.04 coins0.04x2h

Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$49.4970.7 coins$14.7321.04 coins0.30x4h

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Wild Child (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$49.4970.7 coins$2.133.04 coins0.04x4h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $2,156 (43.56x)