Whale

A case on Rain.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$77.22

110 coins

Advertised RTP

—

no catalog

Observed RTP, 30d

90.60%

638 openings, sample method

Variance

—

needs odds

Tail share

—

needs odds

Below price

—

needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

44 openings · below min

7 days

553 openings · below min

30 days

638 openings · below min

since tracking started

638 openings · below min

31.0%68.8%106.5%

Small sample. 638 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	44	65.01%±33.5	—	sample
7d	553	88.60%±15.6	—	sample
30d	638	90.60%±15.1	—	sample
All	638	90.60%±15.1	—	sample

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogRain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.

Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified$77.22110 coins$1,3201,885 coins17.09x6d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeMaikelele$77.22110 coins$1,0211,459 coins13.22x1d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$77.22110 coins$1,0211,459 coins13.22x5d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knifetwitch.tv/MrBarnee$77.22110 coins$1,0211,459 coins13.22x5d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeMIZO$77.22110 coins$1,0211,459 coins13.22x7d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knifedeneb7$77.22110 coins$1,0211,459 coins13.22x7d

★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$77.22110 coins$8461,209 coins10.96x2d

★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$77.22110 coins$8461,209 coins10.96x6d

★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$77.22110 coins$8461,209 coins10.96x8d

★ M9 Bayonet | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert$77.22110 coins$660943 coins8.55x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P250 | Undertow (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$77.22110 coins$31.8845.54 coins0.41x5h

SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$77.22110 coins$52.6575.21 coins0.68x5h

★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Battle-Scarred)gloves · rare$77.22110 coins$451645 coins5.85x5h

PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Factory New)weapon · restricted$77.22110 coins$5.688.11 coins0.07x5h

MAG-7 | Cobalt Core (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$77.22110 coins$0.620.88 coins0.01x5h

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Bright Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedFybZ$77.22110 coins$76.33109 coins0.99x5h

SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$77.22110 coins$52.6575.21 coins0.68x5h

USP-S | Royal Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$77.22110 coins$18.2826.11 coins0.24x5h

MAG-7 | Cobalt Core (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$77.22110 coins$0.620.88 coins0.01x5h

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dark Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$77.22110 coins$2.954.22 coins0.04x5h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $1,320 (17.09x)