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X-Mas Spirit

A case on Rain.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$1,092.81
1,561 coins
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
75.11%
38 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
7 days
6 openings · below min
30 days
38 openings · below min
since tracking started
38 openings · below min
0.0%55.8%111.5%

Small sample. 38 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h0———
7d617.40%±16.6—sample
30d3875.11%±35.7—sample
All3875.11%±35.7—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogRain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Black Pearl$1,0931,561 coins$4,1575,939 coins3.80x
AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New)weapon · covert$1,0931,561 coins$3,4774,967 coins3.18x
AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New)weapon · covert$1,0931,561 coins$3,4774,967 coins3.18x
AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New)weapon · covert$1,0931,561 coins$3,4774,967 coins3.18x
MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New)weapon · classified$1,0931,561 coins$2,3283,326 coins2.13x
MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New)weapon · classified$1,0931,561 coins$2,3283,326 coins2.13x
MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New)weapon · classified$1,0931,561 coins$2,3283,326 coins2.13x
MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New)weapon · classified$1,0931,561 coins$2,3283,326 coins2.13x
AWP | Medusa (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$1,0931,561 coins$1,4972,138 coins1.37x
★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$1,0931,561 coins$1,0261,465 coins0.94x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Afterimage (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified$1,0931,561 coins$17.6925.27 coins0.02x
AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New)weapon · covert$1,0931,561 coins$394562 coins0.36x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Decimator (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$1,0931,561 coins$78.92113 coins0.07x
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Afterimage (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified$1,0931,561 coins$17.6925.27 coins0.02x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Decimator (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$1,0931,561 coins$78.92113 coins0.07x
★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinaryElpassoCS$1,0931,561 coins$554791 coins0.51x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $4,157 (3.80x)