2021 Mirage

A case on Skin.club, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

Price

$0.50

Advertised RTP

—

no catalog

Observed RTP, 30d

91.72%

18K openings, sample method

Variance

—

needs odds

Tail share

—

needs odds

Below price

—

needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

829 openings · below min

7 days

91.86%±4.4812.7K openings

30 days

91.72%±3.6818K openings

since tracking started

91.72%±3.6818K openings

77.5%99.5%121.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	829	99.40%±21.3	—	sample
7d	12.7K	91.86%±4.48	—	sample
30d	18K	91.72%±3.68	—	sample
All	18K	91.72%±3.68	—	sample

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogSkin.club publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AUG | Sand Storm (Factory New)weapon · restricted$0.46$27.3659.48x1d

XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New)weapon · violetkriskoaleluq4$0.50$26.5753.14x8d

XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New)weapon · violet$0.45$25.4256.49x3d

AUG | Sand Storm (Minimal Wear)weapon · Restricted$0.46$23.6351.37x1d

AUG | Sand Storm (Minimal Wear)weapon · Restrictedjason der goat$0.46$23.5851.26x1d

Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedSerahp$0.46$23.5051.09x20h

Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$0.46$23.4050.87x1h

Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$0.45$23.3851.96x3d

Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$0.46$23.3650.78x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MAC-10 | Sienna Damask (Field-Tested)weapon · Common$0.46$0.150.33x27m

MAC-10 | Sienna Damask (Minimal Wear)weapon · Common$0.46$0.270.59x27m

MAG-7 | Navy Sheen (Minimal Wear)weapon · Commonkikki66$0.46$0.320.70x27m

SSG 08 | Prey (Minimal Wear)weapon · CommonGresi_loftar_!!!$0.46$0.170.37x27m

SSG 08 | Prey (Field-Tested)weapon · gray$0.46$0.190.41x27m

MAG-7 | Navy Sheen (Minimal Wear)weapon · Common$0.46$0.320.70x27m

MAC-10 | Sienna Damask (Field-Tested)weapon · Commonkikki66$0.46$0.150.33x27m

SSG 08 | Prey (Minimal Wear)weapon · CommonGresi_loftar_!!!$0.46$0.170.37x27m

PP-Bizon | Anolis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Common$0.46$0.200.43x30m

MP9 | Music Box (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare$0.46$2.154.67x30m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $27.36 (59.48x)