Achroma

A case on Skin.club (Collection Vault), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

Price

$0.74

Advertised RTP

92.72%

EV $0.69 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.72%

114K openings, odds method

Variance

13.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 23

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

89.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

91.57%±6.1614.1K openings

7 days

92.84%±2.4491.4K openings

30 days

92.72%±2.19114K openings

since tracking started

92.72%±2.19114K openings

85.0%91.8%98.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	14.1K	91.57%±6.16	−0.3σ	odds
7d	91.4K	92.84%±2.44	+0.2σ	odds
30d	114K	92.72%±2.19	+0.1σ	odds
All	114K	92.72%±2.19	+0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 114K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| The End (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 500	$43.48	12.7%	220	227.4	0.97×
AWP \| The End (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 100	$15.94	23.2%	1,113	1137.0	0.98×
AK-47 \| Breakthrough (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 83	$7.99	14.0%	1,398	1364.4	1.02×
Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 50	$5.05	14.7%	2,318	2274.0	1.02×
AK-47 \| Breakthrough (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 50	$4.13	12.0%	2,370	2274.0	1.04×
Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 50	$1.75	5.1%	2,283	2274.0	1.00×
AUG \| Creep (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 50	$0.78	2.3%	2,279	2274.0	1.00×
P2000 \| Grip Tape (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 50	$0.63	1.8%	2,180	2274.0	0.96×
Desert Eagle \| The Daily Deagle (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 50	$0.61	1.8%	2,276	2274.0	1.00×
P90 \| Aeolian Light (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 49	$0.55	1.6%	2,370	2330.8	1.02×
AUG \| Creep (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 37	$0.32	1.3%	3,126	3069.9	1.02×
Desert Eagle \| The Daily Deagle (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 37	$0.30	1.2%	2,990	3069.9	0.97×
P2000 \| Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 37	$0.30	1.2%	3,137	3069.9	1.02×
P90 \| Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 37	$0.28	1.1%	3,000	3069.9	0.98×
M4A4 \| Aeolian Dark (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 35	$0.17	0.7%	3,119	3217.7	0.97×
R8 Revolver \| Dark Chamber (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 29	$0.16	0.8%	3,447	3922.7	0.88×
FAMAS \| Vendetta (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 27	$0.14	0.7%	4,033	4150.1	0.97×
MP5-SD \| Snow Splash (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 33	$0.14	0.6%	4,065	3411.0	1.19×
MAC-10 \| Snow Splash (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 27	$0.12	0.6%	3,967	4150.1	0.96×
M4A4 \| Aeolian Dark (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 21	$0.05	0.4%	6,067	5491.7	1.10×
P250 \| Sleet (Factory New)weapon · Common	1 in 20	$0.04	0.3%	6,496	5821.4	1.12×
MAC-10 \| Snow Splash (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 17	$0.04	0.3%	6,497	6765.1	0.96×
M249 \| Sleet (Factory New)weapon · Common	1 in 17	$0.03	0.3%	6,780	6765.1	1.00×
Dual Berettas \| Silver Pour (Factory New)weapon · Common	1 in 20	$0.03	0.2%	6,677	5821.4	1.15×
MP9 \| Dizzy (Factory New)weapon · Common	1 in 17	$0.03	0.3%	6,798	6765.1	1.00×
SCAR-20 \| Zinc (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 17	$0.03	0.3%	6,135	6765.1	0.91×
Nova \| Currents (Factory New)weapon · Common	1 in 17	$0.02	0.2%	6,737	6765.1	1.00×
PP-Bizon \| Bizoom (Factory New)weapon · Common	1 in 19	$0.02	0.2%	5,976	6139.8	0.97×
SSG 08 \| Sans Comic (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 17	$0.02	0.2%	5,846	6765.1	0.86×

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from skinclub:apiv2/cases/achroma-case, 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | The End (Factory New)weapon · Legendary-Raw0$0.76$45.7260.16x7d

AWP | The End (Factory New)weapon · Legendary$0.76$45.6660.08x5d

AWP | The End (Factory New)weapon · Legendary$0.76$45.6460.05x7d

AWP | The End (Factory New)weapon · Legendary$0.76$45.6160.01x6d

AWP | The End (Factory New)weapon · LegendarySemi$0.75$45.6060.80x5d

AWP | The End (Factory New)weapon · LegendaryKrosshair$0.75$45.6060.80x5d

AWP | The End (Factory New)weapon · Legendary$0.75$45.6060.80x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MAC-10 | Snow Splash (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon$0.74$0.130.18x2m

AK-47 | Breakthrough (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical$0.74$4.195.66x2m

R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon$0.74$0.160.22x2m

MAC-10 | Snow Splash (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommonfzero$0.74$0.040.05x2m

Dual Berettas | Silver Pour (Factory New)weapon · Common$0.74$0.040.05x3m

M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon$0.74$0.050.07x3m

P250 | Sleet (Factory New)weapon · Common$0.74$0.040.05x3m

AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rarefzero$0.74$0.320.43x3m

M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon$0.74$0.050.07x4m

P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare$0.74$0.310.42x4m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.72%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 20:47 UTC	$0.74	92.72%	29
11 Nov, 14:43 UTC	$0.74	92.35%	29
11 Nov, 08:39 UTC	$0.74	92.55%	29
11 Nov, 02:35 UTC	$0.74	92.87%	29
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$0.74	92.47%	29
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$0.74	92.14%	29
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$0.74	92.52%	29
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$0.74	92.71%	29
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$0.74	92.80%	29
9 Nov, 14:11 UTC	$0.75	92.26%	29
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$0.75	92.83%	29
9 Nov, 01:54 UTC	$0.76	92.05%	29
8 Nov, 23:40 UTC	$0.75	93.09%	29
8 Nov, 17:36 UTC	$0.75	93.10%	29
8 Nov, 11:31 UTC	$0.75	93.09%	29
8 Nov, 05:27 UTC	$0.76	92.03%	29
7 Nov, 23:23 UTC	$0.76	91.97%	29
7 Nov, 17:19 UTC	$0.75	92.61%	29
7 Nov, 11:15 UTC	$0.75	92.50%	29
7 Nov, 05:10 UTC	$0.75	92.57%	29
6 Nov, 23:06 UTC	$0.75	92.84%	29
6 Nov, 17:02 UTC	$0.75	92.63%	29
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$0.75	92.54%	29
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$0.76	92.32%	29
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$0.75	92.85%	29
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$0.75	92.43%	29
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$0.75	92.20%	29
5 Nov, 04:38 UTC	$0.75	92.94%	29
4 Nov, 22:34 UTC	$0.76	93.06%	29
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$0.76	92.19%	29

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedLegendary 0.2%pink 1.0%Mythical 7.2%#4b69ff 6.0%Rare 10.1%milspec 2.7%Uncommon 24.4%#5e98d9 3.0%Common 33.5%#b0c3d9 11.9%best hit $45.72 (60.16x)