AK-47
A case on Skin.club (By type), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.
Price
$2.48
Advertised RTP
92.38%
EV $2.29 from 47 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.92%
87.5K openings, odds method
Variance
8.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 18
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
74.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values47 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 87.6K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
skinclub:apiv2/cases/ak-47, 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.38%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC | $2.48 | 92.38% | 47 |
| 11 Nov, 14:43 UTC | $2.46 | 92.69% | 47 |
| 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC | $2.46 | 92.61% | 47 |
| 11 Nov, 02:35 UTC | $2.46 | 92.50% | 47 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $2.46 | 92.38% | 47 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $2.46 | 92.48% | 47 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $2.46 | 92.33% | 47 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $2.47 | 92.38% | 47 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $2.46 | 92.61% | 47 |
| 9 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $2.46 | 92.45% | 47 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $3.00 | 92.57% | 47 |
| 9 Nov, 01:54 UTC | $3.02 | 92.37% | 47 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $3.02 | 92.45% | 47 |
| 8 Nov, 23:40 UTC | $3.01 | 92.65% | 47 |
| 8 Nov, 17:36 UTC | $3.01 | 92.63% | 47 |
| 8 Nov, 11:31 UTC | $3.02 | 92.50% | 47 |
| 8 Nov, 05:27 UTC | $3.02 | 92.56% | 47 |
| 7 Nov, 23:23 UTC | $3.02 | 92.65% | 47 |
| 7 Nov, 17:19 UTC | $3.01 | 92.59% | 47 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $3.00 | 92.61% | 47 |
| 7 Nov, 05:10 UTC | $3.00 | 92.39% | 47 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $3.01 | 92.35% | 47 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $3.01 | 92.39% | 47 |
| 3 Nov, 04:53 UTC | $3.00 | 92.56% | 47 |
| 3 Nov, 03:49 UTC | $3.00 | 92.48% | 47 |
| 3 Nov, 02:33 UTC | $3.00 | 92.36% | 47 |
| 3 Nov, 01:40 UTC | $3.00 | 92.46% | 47 |
| 2 Nov, 22:27 UTC | $3.00 | 92.44% | 47 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $3.00 | 92.50% | 47 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedred 0.2%covert 0.3%classified 0.5%restricted 11.5%Ancient 0.2%rare 0.1%mil spec 0.1%pink 0.1%Legendary 1.2%industrial 1.5%Mythical 1.4%#4b69ff 0.8%milspec 0.9%Rare 33.0%blue 13.0%Uncommon 35.2%best hit $228 (75.16x)