Anti-Rush

A case on Skin.club (Our Special), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

Price

$0.43

Advertised RTP

91.62%

EV $0.39 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.90%

108K openings, odds method

Variance

7.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

11.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

84.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

90.47%±4.5213.2K openings

7 days

90.94%±1.7681.7K openings

30 days

90.90%±1.51108K openings

since tracking started

90.90%±1.51108K openings

85.5%90.5%95.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 92.58% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (89.39% – 92.42%, 108,362 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	13.2K	90.47%±4.52	−1.2σ	odds
7d	81.7K	90.94%±1.76	−1.9σ	odds
30d	108K	90.90%±1.51	−2.2σ	odds
All	108K	90.90%±1.51	−2.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 108K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$62.70	1.6%	6	10.8	0.55×
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 526	$13.11	6.3%	169	206.0	0.82×
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 500	$12.62	6.4%	216	216.9	1.00×
MP7 \| Nemesis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 500	$7.77	3.9%	234	216.9	1.08×
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 250	$6.41	6.5%	417	433.8	0.96×
Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 125	$1.35	2.7%	1,023	867.5	1.18×
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$1.29	6.5%	2,183	2168.8	1.01×
Negev \| Lionfish (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$1.26	3.2%	2,233	1084.4	2.06×
MP9 \| Goo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 50	$1.18	6.0%	1,267	2168.8	0.58×
MP9 \| Goo (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 50	$1.13	5.7%	3,973	2168.8	1.83×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Origami (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 40	$0.76	4.8%	2,382	2711.1	0.88×
Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 22	$0.56	6.4%	2,981	4879.9	0.61×
Negev \| Lionfish (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 20	$0.38	4.8%	9,059	5422.1	1.67×
MAC-10 \| Rangeen (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	10.0%	$0.30	7.6%	7,353	10844.2	0.68×
R8 Revolver \| Grip (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	12.0%	$0.25	7.6%	16,203	13013.0	1.25×
Nova \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	19.9%	$0.16	8.1%	19,650	21580.0	0.91×
Glock-18 \| High Beam (Factory New)weapon · light blue	16.3%	$0.14	5.8%	17,676	17676.0	1.00×
P250 \| Cassette (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	21.0%	$0.11	5.9%	21,417	22772.8	0.94×

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from skinclub:apiv2/cases/anti_rush, 12 Nov, 02:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covertStifmeister$0.45$64.08142.4x3d

Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert✠✪InZzAnE✠WaXx✪✠$0.45$64.08142.4x3d

Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covertW Bush$0.43$63.73148.2x1d

Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$0.42$63.73151.7x1d

Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covertSlim Jim$0.45$63.15140.3x7d

Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$0.46$63.15137.3x7d

Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$0.46$63.06137.1x6d

Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covertBigDaddyDon5$0.46$62.94136.8x8d

Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$0.44$62.70142.5x9h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Nova | Candy Apple (Field-Tested)weapon · UncommonBlack Fox$0.42$0.150.36x7m

Glock-18 | High Beam (Factory New)weapon · light blue$0.42$0.140.33x7m

P250 | Cassette (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecBlack Fox$0.42$0.100.24x7m

Glock-18 | High Beam (Factory New)weapon · light blue$0.42$0.140.33x7m

Glock-18 | High Beam (Factory New)weapon · light blueBlack Fox$0.42$0.140.33x8m

Glock-18 | High Beam (Factory New)weapon · light blue$0.42$0.140.33x8m

P250 | Cassette (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecBlack Fox$0.42$0.100.24x8m

P250 | Cassette (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$0.42$0.100.24x8m

P250 | Cassette (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecBlack Fox$0.42$0.100.24x8m

Negev | Lionfish (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical$0.42$0.380.90x8m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 91.62%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
12 Nov, 02:51 UTC	$0.43	91.62%	18
11 Nov, 20:47 UTC	$0.44	93.11%	18
11 Nov, 14:43 UTC	$0.44	93.14%	18
11 Nov, 08:39 UTC	$0.44	93.16%	18
11 Nov, 02:35 UTC	$0.44	93.15%	18
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$0.44	91.84%	18
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$0.43	92.90%	18
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$0.43	91.69%	18
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$0.43	92.91%	18
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$0.42	91.54%	18
9 Nov, 14:11 UTC	$0.42	91.84%	18
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$0.45	92.48%	18
9 Nov, 01:54 UTC	$0.45	92.19%	18
8 Nov, 23:40 UTC	$0.45	91.98%	18
8 Nov, 17:36 UTC	$0.45	91.87%	18
8 Nov, 11:31 UTC	$0.45	93.47%	18
8 Nov, 05:27 UTC	$0.45	91.64%	18
6 Nov, 23:06 UTC	$0.45	92.06%	18
6 Nov, 17:02 UTC	$0.45	91.97%	18
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$0.45	92.16%	18
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$0.46	91.68%	18
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$0.46	92.98%	18
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$0.46	93.04%	18
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$0.46	92.69%	18
5 Nov, 04:38 UTC	$0.46	92.25%	18
4 Nov, 22:34 UTC	$0.45	92.92%	18
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$0.45	93.34%	18
4 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$0.45	92.93%	18
4 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$0.46	91.89%	18
4 Nov, 07:04 UTC	$0.46	91.93%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%classified 0.4%pink 0.2%mil spec 2.4%restricted 1.8%Mythical 9.0%Rare 14.5%milspec 35.5%Uncommon 19.9%light blue 16.3%best hit $64.08 (142.4x)