Arena

A case on Skin.club (Our Special), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

Price

$0.35

Advertised RTP

93.30%

EV $0.33 from 19 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.22%

350K openings, odds method

Variance

4.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

14.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

64.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

92.05%±2.2036.3K openings

7 days

92.11%±0.74285K openings

30 days

92.22%±0.66350K openings

since tracking started

92.22%±0.66350K openings

89.0%92.0%95.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	36.3K	92.05%±2.20	−0.4σ	odds
7d	285K	92.11%±0.74	−0.9σ	odds
30d	350K	92.22%±0.66	−0.4σ	odds
All	350K	92.22%±0.66	−0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 351K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 5,000	$21.66	1.3%	82	70.2	1.17×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 5,000	$16.32	1.0%	62	70.2	0.88×
MP7 \| Cirrus (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,250	$13.36	3.3%	289	280.7	1.03×
AUG \| Momentum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,250	$12.16	3.0%	256	280.7	0.91×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,000	$7.73	2.4%	333	350.8	0.95×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 333	$3.82	3.5%	1,045	1052.4	0.99×
UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 250	$3.34	4.1%	1,426	1403.3	1.02×
P250 \| Franklin (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 33	$1.39	12.8%	10,516	10524.4	1.00×
Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 33	$0.67	6.2%	24,975	10524.4	2.37×
AK-47 \| Uncharted (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 33	$0.60	5.5%	16,059	10524.4	1.53×
MAC-10 \| Ensnared (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 25	$0.60	7.3%	14,283	14032.6	1.02×
MAC-10 \| Monkeyflage (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 25	$0.58	7.1%	24,094	14032.6	1.72×
FAMAS \| Halftone Wash (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 13	$0.47	11.5%	14,391	28065.1	0.51×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Briefing (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	10.0%	$0.35	10.7%	18,549	35081.4	0.53×
Sawed-Off \| Origami (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	10.0%	$0.27	8.3%	34,768	35081.4	0.99×
Five-SeveN \| Orange Peel (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	12.0%	$0.13	4.8%	47,206	42097.7	1.12×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Monkeyflage (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	14.0%	$0.09	3.9%	43,944	49114.0	0.89×
M4A4 \| Steel Work (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	14.0%	$0.05	2.1%	49,269	49114.0	1.00×
M4A4 \| Steel Work (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	14.0%	$0.03	1.3%	49,267	49114.0	1.00×

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from skinclub:apiv2/cases/arena-case, 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Field-Tested)weapon · LegendaryTriage Moneghetti$0.39$22.5357.77x3d

Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary$0.39$22.4957.67x3d

Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendaryh$0.39$22.4857.64x3d

Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary$0.40$22.3855.95x4d

Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary✪ ™$0.40$22.3855.95x5d

Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Field-Tested)weapon · LegendaryQ-COLD$0.40$22.3855.95x5d

Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary$0.41$22.3754.56x4d

Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Field-Tested)weapon · LegendaryGDKRECORDS$0.39$22.3757.36x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AUG | Momentum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedWolle$0.35$12.1734.77x2m

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Monkeyflage (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Rare$0.35$0.090.26x2m

M4A4 | Steel Work (Minimal Wear)weapon · UncommonWolle$0.35$0.050.14x2m

M4A4 | Steel Work (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon$0.35$0.030.09x3m

MAC-10 | Monkeyflage (Factory New)weapon · RareWolle$0.35$0.571.63x3m

AK-47 | Uncharted (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare$0.35$0.601.71x3m

MAC-10 | Monkeyflage (Factory New)weapon · RareWolle$0.35$0.571.63x3m

M4A4 | Steel Work (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon$0.35$0.030.09x3m

FAMAS | Halftone Wash (Factory New)weapon · UncommonWolle$0.35$0.471.34x3m

Five-SeveN | Orange Peel (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon$0.35$0.130.37x3m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.30%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:39 UTC	$0.35	93.30%	19
11 Nov, 02:35 UTC	$0.36	91.47%	19
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$0.36	91.78%	19
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$0.36	91.94%	19
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$0.36	92.95%	19
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$0.36	92.65%	19
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$0.37	91.65%	19
9 Nov, 14:11 UTC	$0.37	91.33%	19
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$0.40	92.43%	19
9 Nov, 01:54 UTC	$0.40	92.21%	19
8 Nov, 23:40 UTC	$0.40	91.90%	19
8 Nov, 17:36 UTC	$0.40	91.50%	19
8 Nov, 11:31 UTC	$0.39	93.16%	19
8 Nov, 05:27 UTC	$0.39	93.13%	19
7 Nov, 23:23 UTC	$0.39	92.48%	19
7 Nov, 17:19 UTC	$0.39	91.99%	19
7 Nov, 11:15 UTC	$0.39	92.41%	19
7 Nov, 05:10 UTC	$0.40	93.21%	19
6 Nov, 23:06 UTC	$0.40	92.85%	19
6 Nov, 17:02 UTC	$0.41	92.87%	19
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$0.40	91.47%	19
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$0.40	92.62%	19
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$0.40	92.24%	19
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$0.40	91.81%	19
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$0.39	93.25%	19
5 Nov, 04:38 UTC	$0.39	92.72%	19
4 Nov, 22:34 UTC	$0.40	91.61%	19
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$0.39	92.61%	19
4 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$0.39	92.51%	19
4 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$0.39	92.52%	19

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedLegendary 3.4%pink 0.4%mil spec 0.1%classified 0.1%Rare 48.0%Uncommon 48.0%best hit $22.53 (57.77x)