Ascent

A case on Skin.club (Collection Vault), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

Price

$0.42

Advertised RTP

92.70%

EV $0.39 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d

93.08%

148K openings, odds method

Variance

19.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 59

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

91.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

90.98%±7.3414.2K openings

7 days

93.47%±2.53117K openings

30 days

93.08%±2.24148K openings

since tracking started

93.08%±2.24148K openings

83.0%91.0%99.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	14.2K	90.98%±7.34	−0.4σ	odds
7d	117K	93.47%±2.53	+0.6σ	odds
30d	148K	93.08%±2.24	+0.4σ	odds
All	148K	93.08%±2.24	+0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 148K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 500	$31.78	16.3%	312	296.9	1.05×
AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 250	$12.23	12.6%	577	593.8	0.97×
M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$10.13	13.0%	718	742.3	0.97×
AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 167	$6.20	9.6%	901	890.8	1.01×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 167	$4.47	6.9%	931	890.8	1.05×
M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Field-Tested)weapon · Classified	1 in 143	$3.60	6.5%	1,030	1039.2	0.99×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 125	$2.18	4.5%	1,231	1187.7	1.04×
MP9 \| Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 91	$0.98	2.8%	1,899	1633.1	1.16×
P90 \| Reef Grief (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 77	$0.70	2.3%	1,730	1930.0	0.90×
P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 83	$0.69	2.1%	1,718	1781.5	0.96×
FAMAS \| Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 63	$0.55	2.3%	2,299	2375.4	0.97×
P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 63	$0.41	1.7%	2,434	2375.4	1.02×
P90 \| Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 59	$0.40	1.7%	2,443	2523.8	0.97×
Negev \| Sour Grapes (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 42	$0.31	1.9%	3,771	3563.0	1.06×
Glock-18 \| Ocean Topo (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 37	$0.30	2.1%	3,799	4008.4	0.95×
M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 31	$0.21	1.7%	4,825	4750.7	1.02×
Galil AR \| Robin's Egg (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 26	$0.17	1.7%	5,934	5641.5	1.05×
Five-SeveN \| Sky Blue (Factory New)weapon · common	1 in 24	$0.15	1.6%	5,701	6086.9	0.94×
Nova \| Turquoise Pour (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 20	$0.12	1.5%	7,352	7423.0	0.99×
MP9 \| Buff Blue (Factory New)weapon · Common	1 in 19	$0.07	0.9%	9,468	7719.9	1.23×
Galil AR \| Robin's Egg (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 16	$0.07	1.1%	9,774	9056.1	1.08×
M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 17	$0.07	1.0%	9,813	8610.7	1.14×
Five-SeveN \| Sky Blue (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 18	$0.06	0.8%	9,202	8165.3	1.13×
SG 553 \| Night Camo (Factory New)weapon · Common	1 in 16	$0.04	0.6%	9,109	9204.5	0.99×
Galil AR \| Robin's Egg (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 11	$0.03	0.7%	10,550	13361.4	0.79×
M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 14	$0.03	0.6%	10,670	10689.1	1.00×
Five-SeveN \| Sky Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 14	$0.03	0.5%	9,919	10392.2	0.95×
XM1014 \| Gum Wall Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · light blue	1 in 13	$0.03	0.6%	10,168	11431.4	0.89×
MP9 \| Buff Blue (Minimal Wear)weapon · common	1 in 15	$0.02	0.3%	10,182	10095.3	1.01×

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from skinclub:apiv2/cases/ascent-collection, 12 Nov, 02:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Factory New)weapon · pink➹𝐑𝐞𝐕𝟏➷$0.42$32.5477.48x2d

M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Factory New)weapon · pinkbeast$0.42$32.5477.48x2d

M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Factory New)weapon · pink$0.42$32.5477.48x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon$0.42$0.030.07x1m

Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon$0.42$0.300.71x1m

Five-SeveN | Sky Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · industrialLady_Icon$0.42$0.020.05x1m

Five-SeveN | Sky Blue (Factory New)weapon · common$0.42$0.150.36x2m

M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon20 kg chin #THANEEK$0.42$0.210.50x2m

P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)weapon · RareHUMID$0.42$0.410.98x2m

Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9$0.42$0.060.14x6m

P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)weapon · RareYouGrx$0.42$0.410.98x6m

MP9 | Buff Blue (Minimal Wear)weapon · common$0.42$0.020.05x6m

MP9 | Buff Blue (Factory New)weapon · Common$0.42$0.070.17x6m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.70%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
12 Nov, 02:51 UTC	$0.42	92.70%	29
11 Nov, 20:47 UTC	$0.42	92.82%	29
11 Nov, 14:43 UTC	$0.42	92.26%	29
11 Nov, 08:39 UTC	$0.42	92.46%	29
11 Nov, 02:35 UTC	$0.42	92.50%	29
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$0.42	92.28%	29
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$0.42	92.40%	29
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$0.42	92.62%	29
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$0.42	93.26%	29
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$0.42	93.25%	29
9 Nov, 14:11 UTC	$0.42	93.36%	29
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$0.43	91.70%	29
9 Nov, 01:54 UTC	$0.43	92.01%	29
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC	$0.43	91.95%	29
8 Nov, 23:40 UTC	$0.43	92.09%	29
8 Nov, 17:36 UTC	$0.43	92.65%	29
8 Nov, 11:31 UTC	$0.43	92.43%	29
8 Nov, 05:27 UTC	$0.43	93.08%	29
7 Nov, 23:23 UTC	$0.43	93.30%	29
7 Nov, 17:19 UTC	$0.43	92.95%	29
7 Nov, 11:15 UTC	$0.43	92.43%	29
7 Nov, 05:10 UTC	$0.43	92.90%	29
6 Nov, 23:06 UTC	$0.43	93.04%	29
6 Nov, 17:02 UTC	$0.43	92.75%	29
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$0.43	92.62%	29
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$0.43	92.30%	29
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$0.43	92.63%	29
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$0.43	92.82%	29
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$0.43	93.09%	29
5 Nov, 04:38 UTC	$0.43	93.21%	29

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedpink 0.2%Mythical 2.4%classified 0.5%Classified 0.7%Rare 4.3%uncommon 2.5%#4b69ff 1.7%Uncommon 35.6%common 10.9%Common 11.4%#5e98d9 15.1%industrial 7.0%light blue 7.7%best hit $32.54 (77.48x)