AUG

A case on Skin.club (By type), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

Price

$0.73

Advertised RTP

92.27%

EV $0.67 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.77%

52.2K openings, odds method

Variance

11.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

15.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

76.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

86.66%±8.655,872 openings

7 days

91.61%±3.1542.4K openings

30 days

91.77%±2.8652.2K openings

since tracking started

91.77%±2.8652.2K openings

77.5%86.8%96.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	5,872	86.66%±8.65	−1.3σ	odds
7d	42.4K	91.61%±3.15	−0.4σ	odds
30d	52.2K	91.77%±2.86	−0.4σ	odds
All	52.2K	91.77%±2.86	−0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 52.3K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AUG \| Chameleon (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$89.91	6.7%	25	26.2	0.96×
AUG \| Lil' Pig (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 1,000	$22.36	3.3%	57	52.3	1.09×
AUG \| Anodized Navy (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,000	$20.86	3.1%	39	52.3	0.75×
AUG \| Fleet Flock (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,000	$13.40	2.0%	49	52.3	0.94×
AUG \| Syd Mead (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,000	$12.20	1.8%	56	52.3	1.07×
AUG \| Momentum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$12.16	1.8%	51	52.3	0.98×
AUG \| Wings (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,000	$11.93	1.8%	54	52.3	1.03×
AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$9.80	1.5%	57	52.3	1.09×
AUG \| Carved Jade (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 1,000	$8.85	1.3%	56	52.3	1.07×
AUG \| Torque (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,000	$8.56	1.3%	34	52.3	0.65×
AUG \| Daedalus (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 1,000	$5.94	0.9%	92	52.3	1.76×
AUG \| Death by Puppy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 500	$4.88	1.4%	122	104.6	1.17×
AUG \| Stymphalian (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 500	$3.59	1.1%	97	104.6	0.93×
AUG \| Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 500	$3.37	1.0%	206	104.6	1.97×
AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 500	$3.33	1.0%	258	104.6	2.47×
AUG \| Navy Murano (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	1 in 500	$3.29	1.0%	113	104.6	1.08×
AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 200	$3.20	2.4%	129	261.5	0.49×
AUG \| Colony (Field-Tested)weapon · Common	1 in 182	$2.11	1.7%	310	287.7	1.08×
AUG \| Random Access (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 167	$1.78	1.6%	464	313.8	1.48×
AUG \| Spalted Wood (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 100	$1.46	2.2%	199	523.1	0.38×
AUG \| Aristocrat (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$1.26	7.5%	2,077	2092.2	0.99×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Plague (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 14	$1.18	12.3%	3,690	3661.4	1.01×
AUG \| Storm (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 13	$0.85	10.1%	4,147	4184.5	0.99×
AUG \| Contractor (Factory New)weapon · Common	10.0%	$0.68	10.1%	5,965	5230.6	1.14×
AUG \| Amber Slipstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	12.0%	$0.40	7.1%	6,297	6276.7	1.00×
AUG \| Ricochet (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	12.0%	$0.39	6.9%	5,578	6276.7	0.89×
AUG \| Triqua (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	12.0%	$0.32	5.7%	6,148	6276.7	0.98×
AUG \| Condemned (Field-Tested)weapon · #87c7ff	15.0%	$0.05	1.1%	8,053	7845.9	1.03×
AUG \| Sweeper (Minimal Wear)weapon · Common	15.3%	$0.02	0.5%	7,883	8002.8	0.99×

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from skinclub:apiv2/cases/aug, 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AUG | Chameleon (Factory New)weapon · covertM3nzu$0.75$94.55126.1x8d

AUG | Chameleon (Factory New)weapon · covert$0.75$94.34125.8x8d

AUG | Chameleon (Factory New)weapon · covert$0.75$93.09124.1x7d

AUG | Chameleon (Factory New)weapon · covert$0.76$91.64120.6x5d

AUG | Chameleon (Factory New)weapon · covertWELOVEWOODS$0.75$91.59122.1x4d

AUG | Chameleon (Factory New)weapon · covertjanicka_33$0.75$91.59122.1x4d

AUG | Chameleon (Factory New)weapon · covert$0.75$91.59122.1x4d

AUG | Chameleon (Factory New)weapon · covert$0.76$91.59120.5x4d

AUG | Chameleon (Factory New)weapon · covertCheesePimp$0.76$91.59120.5x4d

AUG | Chameleon (Factory New)weapon · covertC✠mbat$0.76$91.59120.5x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AUG | Random Access (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical迪西$0.73$1.762.41x3m

AUG | Sweeper (Minimal Wear)weapon · CommonskiiZo$0.73$0.020.03x4m

StatTrak™ AUG | Plague (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Rare$0.73$1.171.60x4m

AUG | Storm (Factory New)weapon · consumeryoudie$0.73$0.841.15x5m

AUG | Death by Puppy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$0.73$4.826.60x5m

StatTrak™ AUG | Plague (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · RareVARUKY$0.73$1.171.60x8m

AUG | Amber Slipstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$0.73$0.400.55x8m

AUG | Storm (Factory New)weapon · consumer$0.73$0.841.15x8m

AUG | Contractor (Factory New)weapon · CommonPiiiiig$0.73$0.660.90x16m

AUG | Storm (Factory New)weapon · consumer$0.73$0.841.15x16m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.27%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:39 UTC	$0.73	92.27%	29
11 Nov, 02:35 UTC	$0.73	92.80%	29
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$0.73	92.19%	29
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$0.73	92.41%	29
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$0.73	92.88%	29
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$0.73	92.70%	29
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$0.73	92.71%	29
9 Nov, 14:11 UTC	$0.74	92.48%	29
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$0.76	92.84%	29
9 Nov, 02:03 UTC	$0.77	92.49%	29
9 Nov, 01:54 UTC	$0.76	93.05%	29
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC	$0.76	92.96%	29
8 Nov, 23:40 UTC	$0.76	92.77%	29
8 Nov, 17:36 UTC	$0.76	92.77%	29
8 Nov, 11:31 UTC	$0.77	92.19%	29
8 Nov, 05:27 UTC	$0.77	92.15%	29
7 Nov, 23:23 UTC	$0.77	91.99%	29
7 Nov, 17:19 UTC	$0.75	92.57%	29
7 Nov, 11:15 UTC	$0.75	91.94%	29
7 Nov, 05:10 UTC	$0.75	92.60%	29
6 Nov, 23:06 UTC	$0.75	92.15%	29
6 Nov, 17:02 UTC	$0.76	92.12%	29
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$0.76	92.11%	29
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$0.76	92.37%	29
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$0.76	92.28%	29
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$0.76	92.28%	29
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$0.75	92.69%	29
5 Nov, 04:38 UTC	$0.75	92.12%	29
4 Nov, 22:34 UTC	$0.75	92.26%	29
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$0.74	92.93%	29

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%uncommon 0.1%mil spec 12.2%Legendary 0.4%classified 0.4%Rare 31.1%restricted 4.6%consumer 8.3%industrial 0.2%Mythical 0.8%Common 25.9%Uncommon 1.0%#87c7ff 15.0%best hit $94.55 (126.1x)