Balance Battle
A case on Skin.club (Battle cases), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.
Price
$1.00
Advertised RTP
92.40%
EV $0.92 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.80%
122K openings, odds method
Variance
4.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
74.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 122K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desert Eagle | Starcade (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare | 1 in 20,000 | $62.59 | 0.3% | 126 | 6.1 | 20.58× |
| AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 7,692 | $50.21 | 0.7% | 2,357 | 15.9 | 148.06× |
| SG 553 | Integrale (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 77 | $15.97 | 22.5% | 8,962 | 1592.0 | 5.63× |
| SG 553 | Integrale (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 43 | $6.33 | 15.8% | 10,939 | 2816.6 | 3.88× |
| MAG-7 | Irradiated Alert (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 1 in 34 | $2.26 | 7.1% | 12,545 | 3551.3 | 3.53× |
| Glock-18 | Weasel (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical | 19.0% | $1.29 | 26.5% | 23,331 | 23267.2 | 1.00× |
| Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical | 29.4% | $0.76 | 24.2% | 27,749 | 36002.9 | 0.77× |
| Negev | Army Sheen (Factory New)weapon · Common | 45.1% | $0.06 | 2.9% | 36,450 | 55207.0 | 0.66× |
Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
skinclub:apiv2/cases/balance_battle, 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.40%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC | $1.00 | 92.40% | 8 |
| 11 Nov, 02:35 UTC | $4.00 | 92.57% | 8 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $4.00 | 92.39% | 8 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $4.00 | 92.45% | 8 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $4.01 | 92.61% | 8 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $4.01 | 92.40% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $4.02 | 92.50% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $4.03 | 92.41% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $4.01 | 92.45% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 02:03 UTC | $4.02 | 92.59% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 01:54 UTC | $4.02 | 92.53% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $4.02 | 92.53% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 23:40 UTC | $4.02 | 92.58% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 17:36 UTC | $4.01 | 92.56% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 11:31 UTC | $4.03 | 92.40% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 05:27 UTC | $4.01 | 92.48% | 8 |
| 7 Nov, 23:23 UTC | $4.02 | 92.57% | 8 |
| 7 Nov, 17:19 UTC | $4.01 | 92.60% | 8 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $4.03 | 92.41% | 8 |
| 7 Nov, 05:10 UTC | $4.00 | 92.55% | 8 |
| 6 Nov, 23:06 UTC | $4.02 | 92.49% | 8 |
| 6 Nov, 17:02 UTC | $4.01 | 92.40% | 8 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $4.01 | 92.42% | 8 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $4.00 | 92.43% | 8 |
| 5 Nov, 04:38 UTC | $4.00 | 92.60% | 8 |
| 4 Nov, 22:34 UTC | $4.00 | 92.58% | 8 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $4.01 | 92.56% | 8 |
| 4 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $4.01 | 92.58% | 8 |
| 4 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $4.03 | 92.53% | 8 |
| 4 Nov, 07:04 UTC | $4.03 | 92.51% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrare 0.0%covert 0.0%classified 3.6%consumer 2.9%Mythical 48.4%Common 45.1%best hit $62.69 (62.69x)