BIG CHICKEN

A case on Skin.club (Sticker Capsules), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

Price

$0.42

Advertised RTP

93.00%

EV $0.39 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.64%

56.7K openings, odds method

Variance

1.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

22.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

84.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

93.53%±2.656,609 openings

7 days

92.82%±1.1141.4K openings

30 days

92.64%±0.9556.7K openings

since tracking started

92.64%±0.9556.7K openings

90.0%93.5%97.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	6,609	93.53%±2.65	+0.7σ	odds
7d	41.4K	92.82%±1.11	+0.3σ	odds
30d	56.7K	92.64%±0.95	+0.2σ	odds
All	56.7K	92.64%±0.95	+0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 57.1K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| Battle Scarred (Holo)sticker · Mythical	1 in 1,316	$7.82	1.5%	57	43.4	1.31×
Sticker \| Big Clucks (Foil)sticker · Legendary	1 in 313	$3.59	2.9%	476	182.6	2.61×
Sticker \| Poorly Drawn Chicken (Holo)sticker · #8847ff	1 in 189	$3.04	4.1%	61	302.5	0.20×
Sticker \| Fowl Play (Holo)sticker · #8847ff	1 in 132	$2.29	4.5%	533	433.7	1.23×
Sticker \| Cluck (Holo)sticker · Mythical	1 in 132	$1.53	3.0%	498	433.7	1.15×
Sticker \| Roosty Boosty (Foil)sticker · Legendary	1 in 132	$1.51	2.9%	567	433.7	1.31×
Sticker \| Boom (Holo)sticker · remarkable	1 in 109	$1.33	3.1%	155	525.1	0.30×
Sticker \| Hot Wings (Holo)sticker · #8847FF	1 in 100	$1.19	3.0%	125	570.7	0.22×
Sticker \| Bonehead (Holo)sticker · Remarkable	1 in 91	$1.16	3.3%	124	627.8	0.20×
Sticker \| Ancient Beast (Foil)sticker · Exotic	1 in 91	$1.10	3.1%	850	627.8	1.35×
Sticker \| Headless Chickensticker · High Grade	1 in 91	$0.90	2.5%	149	627.8	0.24×
Sticker \| Double Dip (Holo)sticker · Mythical	1 in 91	$0.89	2.5%	714	627.8	1.14×
Sticker \| Nest Egg (Holo)sticker · Mythical	1 in 91	$0.80	2.3%	711	627.8	1.13×
Sticker \| Boost (Holo)sticker · Mythical	1 in 83	$0.67	2.1%	786	684.9	1.15×
Sticker \| Get Cluckedsticker · Rare	1 in 83	$0.54	1.7%	2,764	684.9	4.04×
Sticker \| Chicken Strikesticker · Rare	1 in 43	$0.45	2.6%	1,851	1312.6	1.41×
Sticker \| Roosty Boostysticker · Rare	1 in 14	$0.36	6.4%	4,786	3937.9	1.22×
Sticker \| Heads Upsticker · #4b69ff	1 in 19	$0.36	4.9%	730	3024.8	0.24×
Sticker \| Eye Contact (Holo)sticker · Mythical	1 in 14	$0.33	5.8%	4,337	3937.9	1.10×
Sticker \| Boomsticker · Rare	1 in 16	$0.31	4.8%	3,788	3481.3	1.09×
Sticker \| Nest Eggsticker · Rare	1 in 26	$0.29	2.8%	4,149	2168.7	1.91×
Sticker \| No Timesticker · Rare	1 in 14	$0.28	4.9%	4,953	3937.9	1.26×
Sticker \| 100 Thieves (Foil) \| 2020 RMRsticker · Legendary	1 in 14	$0.26	4.6%	4,233	3937.9	1.07×
Sticker \| Door Stuck (Foil)sticker · Legendary	1 in 14	$0.25	4.4%	3,945	3937.9	1.00×
Sticker \| Speedy Tsticker · high	1 in 14	$0.20	3.5%	5,156	3937.9	1.31×
Sticker \| Hard Cluck Lifesticker · Rare	1 in 11	$0.20	4.7%	4,755	5235.7	0.91×
Sticker \| Dr. Dazzlessticker · high	1 in 12	$0.18	3.9%	1,164	4851.0	0.24×
Sticker \| Gen.G (Holo) \| 2020 RMRsticker · Mythical	10.4%	$0.15	4.0%	4,654	5935.4	0.78×

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from skinclub:apiv2/cases/big-chicken, 12 Nov, 02:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | Hard Cluck Lifesticker · Rareschlanki$0.42$0.200.48x13s

Sticker | Gen.G (Holo) | 2020 RMRsticker · Mythical$0.42$0.130.31x13s

Sticker | Door Stuck (Foil)sticker · Legendaryschlanki$0.42$0.250.60x18s

Sticker | Heads Upsticker · #4b69ff$0.42$0.360.86x18s

Sticker | Hard Cluck Lifesticker · Rareschlanki$0.42$0.200.48x23s

Sticker | Door Stuck (Foil)sticker · Legendary$0.42$0.250.60x23s

Sticker | Nest Eggsticker · Rareschlanki$0.42$0.290.69x29s

Sticker | Eye Contact (Holo)sticker · Mythical$0.42$0.350.83x29s

Sticker | Gen.G (Holo) | 2020 RMRsticker · Mythicalschlanki$0.42$0.130.31x34s

Sticker | Hard Cluck Lifesticker · Rare$0.42$0.200.48x34s

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
12 Nov, 02:51 UTC	$0.42	93.00%	28
11 Nov, 20:47 UTC	$0.41	93.45%	28
11 Nov, 14:43 UTC	$0.42	91.59%	28
11 Nov, 08:39 UTC	$0.41	93.37%	28
11 Nov, 02:35 UTC	$0.41	91.56%	28
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$0.41	92.78%	28
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$0.41	92.43%	28
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$0.42	91.77%	28
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$0.42	91.71%	28
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$0.43	92.19%	21
9 Nov, 14:11 UTC	$0.43	92.12%	21
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$0.44	91.56%	21
9 Nov, 02:03 UTC	$0.43	91.63%	21
9 Nov, 01:54 UTC	$0.43	92.54%	21
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC	$0.43	92.98%	21
8 Nov, 23:40 UTC	$0.43	93.22%	21
8 Nov, 17:36 UTC	$0.43	92.49%	21
8 Nov, 11:31 UTC	$0.43	93.22%	21
8 Nov, 05:27 UTC	$0.45	91.95%	21
7 Nov, 23:23 UTC	$0.44	93.16%	21
7 Nov, 17:19 UTC	$0.44	92.74%	21
7 Nov, 11:15 UTC	$0.43	93.45%	21
7 Nov, 05:10 UTC	$0.45	92.21%	21
6 Nov, 23:06 UTC	$0.43	91.63%	21
6 Nov, 17:02 UTC	$0.43	93.27%	21
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$0.43	92.55%	21
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$0.43	92.93%	21
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$0.44	91.74%	21
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$0.43	92.95%	21
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$0.43	93.28%	21

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedMythical 21.5%Legendary 14.9%#8847ff 1.3%remarkable 0.9%#8847FF 1.0%Remarkable 1.1%Exotic 1.1%High Grade 1.1%Rare 36.4%#4b69ff 5.3%high 15.4%best hit —