Boreal

A case on Skin.club (Collection Vault), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

Price

$0.35

Advertised RTP

92.28%

EV $0.32 from 27 items

Observed RTP, 30d

93.16%

125K openings, odds method

Variance

18.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 35

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

92.32%±6.5516.3K openings

7 days

93.22%±2.50102K openings

30 days

93.16%±2.24125K openings

since tracking started

93.16%±2.24125K openings

85.0%92.3%99.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	16.3K	92.32%±6.55	+0.2σ	odds
7d	102K	93.22%±2.50	+1.0σ	odds
30d	125K	93.16%±2.24	+1.0σ	odds
All	125K	93.16%±2.24	+1.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values27 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 125K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Green Energy (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 588	$29.10	15.3%	171	211.9	0.81×
AWP \| Green Energy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 333	$13.36	12.4%	386	374.0	1.03×
AWP \| Green Energy (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 333	$6.54	6.1%	401	374.0	1.07×
M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 333	$4.23	3.9%	393	374.0	1.05×
AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 196	$3.42	5.4%	652	635.8	1.03×
Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 167	$2.92	5.4%	756	748.0	1.01×
M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 143	$1.77	3.8%	913	872.6	1.05×
AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 143	$1.40	3.0%	863	872.6	0.99×
Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 143	$1.33	2.9%	891	872.6	1.02×
USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 115	$1.09	2.9%	1,131	1084.5	1.04×
Dual Berettas \| Polished Malachite (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 33	$0.66	6.1%	3,724	3739.8	1.00×
Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 111	$0.61	1.7%	1,090	1121.9	0.97×
USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 77	$0.57	2.3%	1,631	1620.6	1.01×
AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 45	$0.50	3.4%	2,719	2742.5	0.99×
MAC-10 \| Poplar Thicket (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 51	$0.38	2.3%	2,427	2430.9	1.00×
AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 20	$0.31	4.8%	6,206	6233.0	1.00×
USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 36	$0.26	2.3%	3,448	3490.5	0.99×
Dual Berettas \| Polished Malachite (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 14	$0.17	3.7%	8,567	8726.1	0.98×
P2000 \| Marsh (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 19	$0.13	2.1%	7,542	6482.3	1.16×
AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 17	$0.13	2.4%	6,800	7479.5	0.91×
MAC-10 \| Poplar Thicket (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 11	$0.07	2.0%	11,097	11468.6	0.97×
Tec-9 \| Garter-9 (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 13	$0.06	1.4%	10,768	9598.7	1.12×
P90 \| Mustard Gas (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 20	$0.05	0.8%	9,239	6233.0	1.48×
SSG 08 \| Green Ceramic (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 10	$0.04	1.2%	8,027	12091.9	0.66×
Dual Berettas \| Polished Malachite (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 14	$0.03	0.7%	8,759	8726.1	1.00×
Galil AR \| Acid Dart (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9	10.9%	$0.03	1.0%	13,422	13587.8	0.99×
R8 Revolver \| Leafhopper (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	10.0%	$0.02	0.6%	12,636	12465.9	1.01×

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from skinclub:apiv2/cases/boreal-collection, 12 Nov, 02:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Green Energy (Factory New)weapon · rare$0.35$29.7284.91x7d

AWP | Green Energy (Factory New)weapon · rare$0.35$29.6884.80x7d

AWP | Green Energy (Factory New)weapon · rareWaltuh$0.35$29.6884.80x7d

AWP | Green Energy (Factory New)weapon · rare$0.35$29.6784.77x7d

AWP | Green Energy (Factory New)weapon · rareMarcus.$0.35$29.6784.77x7d

AWP | Green Energy (Factory New)weapon · rarepolarwhite4$0.35$29.6284.63x6d

AWP | Green Energy (Factory New)weapon · rare$0.35$29.6184.60x7d

AWP | Green Energy (Factory New)weapon · rareSUPERMAN$0.35$29.6184.60x8d

AWP | Green Energy (Factory New)weapon · rarevkolarikk$0.35$29.6184.60x8d

AWP | Green Energy (Factory New)weapon · rareDaKingOfHash$0.35$29.6184.60x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon$0.35$0.040.11x3m

MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)weapon · RareBaboune95100$0.35$0.381.09x3m

Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon$0.35$0.160.46x3m

R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Field-Tested)weapon · UncommonBaboune95100$0.35$0.020.06x3m

P2000 | Marsh (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9$0.35$0.130.37x3m

Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommonBaboune95100$0.35$1.323.77x3m

SSG 08 | Green Ceramic (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d9$0.35$0.040.11x3m

R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Field-Tested)weapon · UncommonBaboune95100$0.35$0.020.06x3m

Galil AR | Acid Dart (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9Kruzak$0.35$0.030.09x6m

Tec-9 | Garter-9 (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9Serahp$0.35$0.060.17x6m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.28%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
12 Nov, 02:51 UTC	$0.35	92.28%	27
11 Nov, 20:47 UTC	$0.35	91.94%	27
11 Nov, 14:43 UTC	$0.35	91.32%	27
11 Nov, 08:39 UTC	$0.35	91.48%	27
11 Nov, 02:35 UTC	$0.35	91.56%	27
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$0.35	91.64%	27
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$0.35	91.61%	27
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$0.35	91.28%	27
8 Nov, 05:27 UTC	$0.35	92.53%	27
7 Nov, 23:23 UTC	$0.35	91.38%	27
7 Nov, 17:19 UTC	$0.35	91.21%	27
7 Nov, 11:15 UTC	$0.35	91.35%	27
7 Nov, 05:10 UTC	$0.35	91.58%	27
6 Nov, 23:06 UTC	$0.35	92.22%	27
6 Nov, 17:02 UTC	$0.35	92.43%	27
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$0.35	92.47%	27
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$0.35	93.10%	27
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$0.35	93.37%	27
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$0.35	92.04%	27
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$0.35	91.22%	27
5 Nov, 04:38 UTC	$0.35	92.05%	27
4 Nov, 22:34 UTC	$0.35	92.20%	27
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$0.35	92.67%	27
4 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$0.35	92.27%	27
2 Nov, 21:40 UTC	$0.35	91.94%	27

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedrare 0.8%#d32ce6 0.6%#8847ff 1.9%blue 1.2%uncommon 0.7%#4b69ff 5.9%Uncommon 33.0%Rare 12.4%#5e98d9 33.8%#b0c3d9 9.7%best hit $29.72 (84.91x)