Desert Eagle

A case on Skin.club (By type), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

Price

$1.69

Advertised RTP

92.52%

EV $1.56 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.71%

93.3K openings, odds method

Variance

7.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 17

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

89.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

87.92%±5.689,532 openings

7 days

90.66%±2.0876.5K openings

30 days

90.71%±1.9093.3K openings

since tracking started

90.71%±1.9093.3K openings

81.5%87.8%94.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	9,532	87.92%±5.68	−1.4σ	odds
7d	76.5K	90.66%±2.08	−1.6σ	odds
30d	93.3K	90.71%±1.90	−1.8σ	odds
All	93.3K	90.71%±1.90	−1.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 93.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$141	1.8%	16	18.7	0.86×
Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 5,000	$85.01	1.1%	22	18.7	1.18×
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,500	$70.96	1.8%	43	37.4	1.15×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$70.29	1.8%	45	37.4	1.20×
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 1,667	$62.59	2.4%	18	56.0	0.32×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,667	$53.60	2.1%	51	56.0	0.91×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,667	$43.44	1.7%	64	56.0	1.14×
Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,250	$32.61	1.7%	64	74.7	0.86×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 1,250	$26.71	1.4%	102	74.7	1.36×
Desert Eagle \| Night (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 909	$26.00	1.8%	88	102.8	0.86×
Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 909	$22.17	1.6%	85	102.8	0.83×
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 909	$20.19	1.4%	345	102.8	3.36×
Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 400	$19.88	3.2%	416	233.5	1.78×
Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 244	$12.62	3.3%	157	383.0	0.41×
Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 182	$11.06	3.9%	281	513.8	0.55×
Desert Eagle \| Sputnik (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 100	$9.87	6.3%	924	934.1	0.99×
Desert Eagle \| Mudder (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 100	$9.10	5.8%	944	934.1	1.01×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$8.98	5.7%	950	934.1	1.02×
Desert Eagle \| Directive (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$8.33	5.3%	941	934.1	1.01×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$6.82	4.4%	948	934.1	1.01×
Desert Eagle \| Urban DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 100	$4.44	2.8%	972	934.1	1.04×
Desert Eagle \| Naga (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$3.77	2.4%	937	934.1	1.00×
Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 100	$2.50	1.6%	940	934.1	1.01×
Desert Eagle \| The Bronze (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 100	$1.73	1.1%	982	934.1	1.05×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 100	$1.52	1.0%	891	934.1	0.95×
Desert Eagle \| Corinthian (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 17	$1.12	4.3%	5,710	5604.9	1.02×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$1.09	4.9%	4,602	6539.1	0.70×
Desert Eagle \| Meteorite (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 33	$1.08	2.1%	4,481	2802.4	1.60×
Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 14	$0.67	3.0%	8,765	6539.1	1.34×
Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	10.0%	$0.53	3.4%	9,238	9341.5	0.99×
Desert Eagle \| Calligraffiti (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	10.0%	$0.50	3.2%	9,340	9341.5	1.00×
Desert Eagle \| Tilted (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	10.0%	$0.46	2.9%	10,164	9341.5	1.09×
Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	11.0%	$0.43	3.0%	10,419	10275.6	1.01×
Desert Eagle \| Urban Rubble (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	13.0%	$0.40	3.3%	11,484	12144.0	0.95×
Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	11.0%	$0.36	2.5%	7,986	10275.6	0.78×

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from skinclub:apiv2/cases/deagle, 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Desert Eagle | Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classifiedsimba$1.66$15191.14x8d

Desert Eagle | Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classified$1.69$15088.53x5d

Desert Eagle | Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classified$1.71$14986.93x4d

Desert Eagle | Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classified$1.66$14989.55x7d

Desert Eagle | Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classified$1.69$14987.95x4d

Desert Eagle | Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classified$1.72$14886.23x2d

Desert Eagle | Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classified$1.72$14886.13x2d

Desert Eagle | Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classified$1.69$14887.44x5d

Desert Eagle | Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classifieds33k$1.69$14787.11x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Desert Eagle | Meteorite (Factory New)weapon · blue$1.70$1.090.64x21s

Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedPukii$$$1.70$8.885.22x21s

Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare$1.70$0.420.25x21s

Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$1.70$1.100.65x21s

Desert Eagle | Calligraffiti (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue$1.70$0.480.28x35s

Desert Eagle | Meteorite (Factory New)weapon · bluePukii$$$1.70$1.090.64x35s

Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare$1.70$0.660.39x35s

Desert Eagle | Urban Rubble (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare$1.70$0.400.24x35s

Desert Eagle | Tilted (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon$1.70$0.460.27x43s

Desert Eagle | Bronze Deco (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$1.70$0.370.22x43s

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.52%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:39 UTC	$1.69	92.52%	35
11 Nov, 02:35 UTC	$1.65	92.77%	35
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$1.64	92.64%	35
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$1.63	92.36%	35
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$1.61	92.69%	35
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$1.61	92.45%	35
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$1.62	92.42%	35
9 Nov, 14:11 UTC	$1.63	92.36%	35
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$1.71	92.53%	35
9 Nov, 01:54 UTC	$1.73	92.26%	35
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC	$1.71	92.35%	35
8 Nov, 23:40 UTC	$1.72	92.26%	35
8 Nov, 17:36 UTC	$1.72	92.37%	35
8 Nov, 11:31 UTC	$1.73	92.26%	35
8 Nov, 05:27 UTC	$1.72	92.61%	35
7 Nov, 23:23 UTC	$1.72	92.30%	35
7 Nov, 17:19 UTC	$1.72	92.42%	35
7 Nov, 11:15 UTC	$1.71	92.63%	35
7 Nov, 05:10 UTC	$1.70	92.43%	35
6 Nov, 23:06 UTC	$1.69	92.76%	35
6 Nov, 17:02 UTC	$1.69	92.24%	35
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$1.69	92.44%	35
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$1.69	92.65%	35
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$1.69	92.43%	35
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$1.68	92.45%	35
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$1.67	92.46%	35
5 Nov, 04:38 UTC	$1.67	92.76%	35
4 Nov, 22:34 UTC	$1.67	92.43%	35
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$1.66	92.44%	35
4 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$1.66	92.24%	35

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 1.2%restricted 10.7%covert 0.2%rare 0.1%Classified 0.1%industrial 1.2%mil spec 17.3%Mythical 0.4%blue 14.0%Uncommon 12.0%pink 1.0%uncommon 1.0%Rare 41.0%best hit $151 (91.14x)