Dream

A case on Skin.club (Our Special), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

Price

$1.97

Advertised RTP

92.31%

EV $1.82 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.11%

14K openings, odds method

Variance

11.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 11

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

86.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

97.49%±20.621,064 openings

7 days

89.77%±6.3611.3K openings

30 days

91.11%±5.7414K openings

since tracking started

91.11%±5.7414K openings

76.0%97.5%119.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,064	97.49%±20.6	+0.5σ	odds
7d	11.3K	89.77%±6.36	−0.8σ	odds
30d	14K	91.11%±5.74	−0.4σ	odds
All	14K	91.11%±5.74	−0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 400	$122	16.8%	30	35.0	0.86×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 286	$44.14	8.5%	53	49.1	1.08×
AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$7.57	16.7%	581	560.6	1.04×
SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 24	$4.20	9.7%	560	588.6	0.95×
SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 19	$2.00	5.7%	863	728.8	1.18×
USP-S \| Torque (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 17	$1.74	5.7%	820	840.9	0.98×
CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$1.43	4.7%	770	840.9	0.92×
CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 13	$1.14	5.0%	1,250	1121.2	1.11×
USP-S \| Torque (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	10.0%	$0.96	5.3%	1,367	1401.5	0.98×
SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	10.0%	$0.92	5.1%	1,191	1401.5	0.85×
AK-47 \| Uncharted (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	10.0%	$0.84	4.6%	1,571	1401.5	1.12×
USP-S \| Torque (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	11.0%	$0.64	3.9%	1,456	1541.7	0.94×
AK-47 \| Uncharted (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	13.0%	$0.62	4.4%	1,716	1822.0	0.94×
AK-47 \| Uncharted (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	12.0%	$0.59	3.9%	1,787	1681.8	1.06×

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from skinclub:apiv2/cases/dream, 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertMedieval$1.93$12665.32x8d

M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert冶圓辛支柱$1.92$12665.66x8d

M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertCrnoJaje$1.92$12665.60x7d

M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertSleek Tempest$1.92$12565.29x8d

M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$1.92$12565.29x8d

M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertstonie EZ money$1.92$12565.16x8d

M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$1.92$12565.14x7d

M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertsLdr$1.92$12565.13x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | Atheris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$1.97$7.503.81x9m

USP-S | Torque (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specProuton L'oeil Vif$1.97$0.640.32x9m

CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff✪ pNd 🔥 SABOUR 20k$1.97$1.140.58x20m

SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted3tune$1.97$1.991.01x20m

AK-47 | Uncharted (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specTRUE .$1.97$0.840.43x20m

CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffNe0 Energy$1.97$1.140.58x20m

AK-47 | Uncharted (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specPenguin Man$1.97$0.840.43x26m

AK-47 | Uncharted (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specewokeygpt$1.97$0.840.43x26m

SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedPenguin Man$1.97$1.991.01x26m

AK-47 | Uncharted (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil specewokeygpt$1.97$0.620.31x26m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.31%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 20:47 UTC	$1.97	92.31%	14
11 Nov, 14:43 UTC	$1.94	92.66%	14
11 Nov, 08:39 UTC	$1.94	92.44%	14
11 Nov, 02:35 UTC	$1.95	92.47%	14
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$1.93	92.30%	14
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$1.93	92.36%	14
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$1.93	92.68%	14
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$1.94	92.27%	14
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$1.93	92.50%	14
9 Nov, 14:11 UTC	$1.94	92.40%	14
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$1.95	92.29%	14
9 Nov, 01:54 UTC	$1.95	92.53%	14
8 Nov, 23:40 UTC	$1.95	92.61%	14
8 Nov, 17:36 UTC	$1.96	92.68%	14
8 Nov, 11:31 UTC	$1.96	92.60%	14
8 Nov, 05:27 UTC	$1.96	92.28%	14
7 Nov, 23:23 UTC	$1.96	92.44%	14
7 Nov, 17:19 UTC	$1.96	92.27%	14
7 Nov, 11:15 UTC	$1.95	92.57%	14
7 Nov, 05:10 UTC	$1.94	92.35%	14
6 Nov, 23:06 UTC	$1.94	92.65%	14
6 Nov, 17:02 UTC	$1.95	92.47%	14
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$1.96	92.38%	14
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$1.95	92.71%	14
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$1.96	92.57%	14
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$1.94	92.59%	14
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$1.93	92.44%	14
5 Nov, 04:38 UTC	$1.92	92.42%	14
4 Nov, 22:34 UTC	$1.91	92.63%	14
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$1.91	92.55%	14

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.6%restricted 19.4%mil spec 50.0%#8847ff 18.0%Rare 12.0%best hit $126 (65.32x)