Dreams And Nightmares

A case on Skin.club (Classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

Price

$1.38

Advertised RTP

92.20%

EV $1.27 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

93.07%

40.9K openings, odds method

Variance

26.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 20

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

90.42%±16.033,964 openings

7 days

92.50%±6.0129.7K openings

30 days

93.07%±5.2040.9K openings

since tracking started

93.07%±5.2040.9K openings

73.5%90.3%107.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	3,964	90.42%±16.0	−0.2σ	odds
7d	29.7K	92.50%±6.01	+0.0σ	odds
30d	40.9K	93.07%±5.20	+0.2σ	odds
All	40.9K	93.07%±5.20	+0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 41K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal	1 in 1,429	$103	5.7%	122	28.7	4.25×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$96.80	7.6%	39	41.0	0.95×
★ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 250	$92.37	29.0%	82	164.0	0.50×
Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 233	$13.20	4.5%	161	176.3	0.91×
G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 25	$2.97	9.3%	1,642	1640.4	1.00×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Factory New)weapon · Restricted	1 in 20	$1.94	7.6%	2,113	2050.5	1.03×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 20	$1.63	6.4%	2,017	2050.5	0.98×
PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Minimal Wear)weapon · Restricted	1 in 14	$0.72	4.0%	4,244	2870.7	1.48×
Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 14	$0.56	3.1%	3,296	2870.7	1.15×
MAC-10 \| Ensnared (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 13	$0.56	3.5%	2,817	3280.8	0.86×
Sawed-Off \| Spirit Board (Factory New)weapon · Rare	10.0%	$0.52	4.1%	4,136	4101.0	1.01×
MP5-SD \| Necro Jr. (Factory New)weapon · Rare	12.0%	$0.51	4.8%	4,496	4921.2	0.91×
P2000 \| Lifted Spirits (Factory New)weapon · Rare	13.0%	$0.51	5.2%	4,344	5331.3	0.81×
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Poultrygeist (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	14.0%	$0.24	2.6%	5,702	5741.4	0.99×
MAG-7 \| Foresight (Factory New)weapon · blue	14.0%	$0.23	2.5%	5,799	5741.4	1.01×

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from skinclub:apiv2/cases/dreams_and_nightmares, 13 Nov, 02:20 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Bowie Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · ImmortalEXHER$1.49$11375.57x9d

★ Bowie Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal$1.49$11375.57x9d

★ Bowie Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal$1.49$11275.32x9d

★ Bowie Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal$1.49$11275.18x9d

★ Bowie Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · ImmortalhUstleee$1.49$11275.12x9d

★ Bowie Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal✪HibichiN$1.47$11276.03x9d

★ Bowie Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortaloscar$1.48$11275.51x9d

★ Bowie Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal$1.48$11275.51x9d

★ Bowie Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · ImmortalZonal Crest$1.49$11274.84x9d

★ Bowie Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · ImmortalDr. Rainer Winkler$1.49$11174.83x9d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Factory New)weapon · Rare$1.38$0.520.38x6m

MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Factory New)weapon · Rare$1.38$0.510.37x6m

Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Factory New)weapon · Rare$1.38$0.520.38x6m

MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Factory New)weapon · RareChajoseK$1.38$0.510.37x6m

P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Factory New)weapon · Rare$1.38$0.510.37x6m

Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Factory New)weapon · Rare$1.38$0.520.38x6m

P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Factory New)weapon · RareChajoseK$1.38$0.510.37x6m

Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Factory New)weapon · Rare$1.38$0.520.38x6m

MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Factory New)weapon · Rare$1.38$0.510.37x6m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.20%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
13 Nov, 02:20 UTC	$1.38	92.20%	15
12 Nov, 23:42 UTC	$1.38	92.19%	15
12 Nov, 22:54 UTC	$1.37	92.57%	15
12 Nov, 19:03 UTC	$1.37	92.51%	15
12 Nov, 15:00 UTC	$1.37	92.42%	15
12 Nov, 08:56 UTC	$1.37	92.27%	15
12 Nov, 02:51 UTC	$1.37	92.28%	15
11 Nov, 20:47 UTC	$1.37	92.49%	15
11 Nov, 14:43 UTC	$1.37	92.41%	15
11 Nov, 08:39 UTC	$1.37	92.49%	15
11 Nov, 02:35 UTC	$1.38	92.33%	15
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$1.37	92.47%	15
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$1.37	92.26%	15
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$1.37	92.69%	15
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$1.37	92.58%	15
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$1.38	92.77%	15
9 Nov, 14:11 UTC	$1.40	92.34%	15
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$1.48	92.32%	15
9 Nov, 02:03 UTC	$1.48	92.30%	15
9 Nov, 01:54 UTC	$1.50	92.35%	15
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC	$1.50	92.54%	15
8 Nov, 23:40 UTC	$1.49	92.47%	15
8 Nov, 17:36 UTC	$1.50	92.29%	15
8 Nov, 11:31 UTC	$1.47	92.54%	15
8 Nov, 05:27 UTC	$1.48	92.22%	15
7 Nov, 23:23 UTC	$1.47	92.74%	15
7 Nov, 17:19 UTC	$1.47	92.61%	15
7 Nov, 11:15 UTC	$1.46	92.65%	15
7 Nov, 05:10 UTC	$1.46	92.40%	15
6 Nov, 23:06 UTC	$1.46	92.59%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedImmortal 0.1%covert 0.5%Legendary 0.4%Mythical 4.0%Restricted 12.0%#8847ff 5.0%milspec 7.0%Rare 43.0%#4b69ff 14.0%blue 14.0%best hit $113 (75.57x)